← Matchups

Baylor

B12 · 1-1 · power +17.3 · #47

Our numberBYU -10.4 ~~no book has priced this game~~

BYU

B12 · 2-0 (1-0 B12) · power +25.1 · #16

Our side

MoneylineBYU to win ours 72%

Projected score 20–31 BAY – BYU

2026-11-14 · kickoff TBD LaVell Edwards Stadium · Provo, UT B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series BYU lead 3–2 · 5 meetings since 1983

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game even ~~5 ranks apart~~

Baylor Bears #68 rush offense BYU Cougars #63 run defense

Pass game edge BYU Cougars ~~85 ranks~~

Baylor Bears #144 pass offense BYU Cougars #59 pass defense

Run game edge BYU Cougars ~~123 ranks~~

BYU Cougars #43 rush offense Baylor Bears #166 run defense

Pass game even ~~36 ranks apart~~

BYU Cougars #99 pass offense Baylor Bears #135 pass defense

Baylor Bears Balanced · 42% run Avg pace BYU Cougars Balanced · 57% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 41 rush ypg

Dave Aranda · 36-37 Kalani Sitake · 84-45

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Baylor Bears

WR Gavin Freeman 22 rec · 258 yds · 1 TD #9 WR

DL Garrick Ponder 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #56 DL

DL Devonte Tezino 4 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #73 DL

DB Devin Turner 9 tkl · 1 PD #235 DB

BYU Cougars

QB Bear Bachmeier 415 pass yds · 6 TD · 0 INT #12 QB

DL Tausili Akana 4 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #171 DL

WR Legend Glasker 6 rec · 139 yds · 2 TD #113 WR

WR Kyler Kasper 8 rec · 93 yds · 2 TD #116 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Baylor Bears~~B12~~	+17.3	+9.6	+7.7	#47
BYU Cougars~~B12~~	+25.1	+13.9	+11.2	#16

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Baylor offense vs BYU defense-1.6 pts

BYU offense vs Baylor defense+6.2 pts

Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,009 mi

Altitude · context only1,298 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.