← Matchups

Houston

B12 · 2-0 · power +13.9 · #61
Our numberHOU -1.5 no book has priced this game

Colorado

B12 · 2-0 · power +14.6 · #56
Our side
MoneylineCOLO to win ours 56%
Projected score 26–24 HOU – COLO
2026-11-13 · 10:15 PM Folsom Field · Boulder, CO B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Colorado and Houston split 2 (1–1) · 2 meetings since 1971
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Colorado Buffaloes 84 ranks
Houston Cougars #244 rush offense Colorado Buffaloes #160 run defense
Pass game edge Houston Cougars 164 ranks
Houston Cougars #81 pass offense Colorado Buffaloes #245 pass defense
Run game edge Houston Cougars 114 ranks
Colorado Buffaloes #200 rush offense Houston Cougars #86 run defense
Pass game edge Houston Cougars 54 ranks
Colorado Buffaloes #154 pass offense Houston Cougars #100 pass defense
Houston Cougars Run-heavy · 63% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 54 rush ypg Colorado Buffaloes Balanced · 54% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 40 rush ypg
Willie Fritz · 77-62 · defense-minded Deion Sanders · 16-21

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Houston Cougars
WR Amare Thomas 11 rec · 162 yds · 2 TD #73 WR
TE Patrick Overmyer 8 rec · 100 yds · 1 TD #30 TE
DB Jordan Allen 5 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT #162 DB
DB Jalen Mayo 9 tkl · 2 PD #271 DB
Colorado Buffaloes
DL Lamont Lester Jr. 7 tkl · 4.0 sacks · 5.0 TFL #19 DL
DL Toby Anene 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #58 DL
DB Randon Fontenette 12 tkl · 1 INT #138 DB
QB Julian Lewis 490 pass yds · 5 TD · 0 INT #44 QB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Houston CougarsB12 +13.9 +9.8 +4.1 #61
Colorado BuffaloesB12 +14.6 +4.8 +9.7 #56

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Houston offense vs Colorado defense+0.1 pts
Colorado offense vs Houston defense+0.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 905 mi
Altitude · context only1,628 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.