← Matchups

Kansas State

B12 · 2-0 · power +24.9 · #17

Our numberKSU -6.3 ~~no book has priced this game~~

TCU

B12 · 1-1 · power +17.5 · #46

Our side

MoneylineKSU to win ours 37%

Projected score 28–22 KSU – TCU

2026-11-14 · kickoff TBD Amon G. Carter Stadium · Fort Worth, TX B12 game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Kansas State lead 11–8 · 19 meetings since 1922

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game even ~~20 ranks apart~~

Kansas State Wildcats #88 rush offense TCU Horned Frogs #108 run defense

Pass game even ~~36 ranks apart~~

Kansas State Wildcats #124 pass offense TCU Horned Frogs #160 pass defense

Run game even ~~1 ranks apart~~

TCU Horned Frogs #153 rush offense Kansas State Wildcats #152 run defense

Pass game even ~~39 ranks apart~~

TCU Horned Frogs #36 pass offense Kansas State Wildcats #75 pass defense

Kansas State Wildcats Balanced · 57% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 40 rush ypg TCU Horned Frogs Balanced · 49% run Avg pace

Chris Klieman · 54-34 Sonny Dykes · 79-46

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Kansas State Wildcats

RB Joe Jackson 106 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec #22 RB

WR Josh Manning 13 rec · 130 yds · 2 TD #51 WR

DL Wendell Gregory 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #121 DL

RB Rodney Fields Jr. 206 rush yds · 2 TD #55 RB

TCU Horned Frogs

TE Kari Ashley 10 rec · 136 yds · 2 TD #6 TE

DB Teon Parks 1 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #65 DB

DL Ansel Din-Mbuh 6 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #98 DL

RB Jeremy Payne 221 rush yds · 6 rec #81 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Kansas State Wildcats~~B12~~	+24.9	+15.7	+9.2	#17
TCU Horned Frogs~~B12~~	+17.5	+9.7	+7.9	#46

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Kansas State offense vs TCU defense+7.9 pts

TCU offense vs Kansas State defense+0.5 pts

Travel · context onlyAway team travels 451 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.