Our side
MoneylineBAY to win
ours 46%
Projected score
28–26
BAY – HOU
2026-11-28 · kickoff TBD
TDECU Stadium · Houston, TX
B12 game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Baylor and Houston split 31 (15–15–1)
· 31 meetings since 1950
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
18 ranks apart
Baylor Bears #68 rush offense
Houston Cougars #86 run defense
Pass game
even
44 ranks apart
Baylor Bears #144 pass offense
Houston Cougars #100 pass defense
Run game
edge Baylor Bears
78 ranks
Houston Cougars #244 rush offense
Baylor Bears #166 run defense
Pass game
edge Houston Cougars
54 ranks
Houston Cougars #81 pass offense
Baylor Bears #135 pass defense
Baylor Bears
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Houston Cougars
Run-heavy · 63% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 54 rush ypg
Dave Aranda · 36-37
Willie Fritz · 77-62 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Baylor Bears
WR
Gavin Freeman
22 rec · 258 yds · 1 TD
#9 WR
DL
Garrick Ponder
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#56 DL
DL
Devonte Tezino
4 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#73 DL
DB
Devin Turner
9 tkl · 1 PD
#235 DB
Houston Cougars
WR
Amare Thomas
11 rec · 162 yds · 2 TD
#73 WR
TE
Patrick Overmyer
8 rec · 100 yds · 1 TD
#30 TE
DB
Jordan Allen
5 tkl · 4 PD · 1 INT
#162 DB
DB
Jalen Mayo
9 tkl · 2 PD
#271 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Baylor offense vs Houston defense+5.5 pts
Houston offense vs Baylor defense+2.2 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.