← Matchups

Florida

SEC · 2-0 · power +20.0 · #38
Our numberFLA -9.9 no book has priced this game

Kentucky

SEC · 1-1 (0-1 SEC) · power +14.3 · #58
Our side
MoneylineFLA to win ours 41%
Projected score 31–21 FLA – UK
2026-11-14 · kickoff TBD Kroger Field · Lexington, KY SEC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Florida lead 54–22 · 76 meetings since 1917
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 34 ranks apart
Florida Gators #80 rush offense Kentucky Wildcats #114 run defense
Pass game even 2 ranks apart
Florida Gators #184 pass offense Kentucky Wildcats #186 pass defense
Run game edge Florida Gators 112 ranks
Kentucky Wildcats #190 rush offense Florida Gators #78 run defense
Pass game even 0 ranks apart
Kentucky Wildcats #168 pass offense Florida Gators #168 pass defense
Florida Gators Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Kentucky Wildcats Balanced · 56% run Ball-control
Billy Napier · 62-35 Mark Stoops · 75-63

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Florida Gators
DL Jeramiah McCloud 12 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL #27 DL
RB Jadan Baugh 296 rush yds · 5 TD #12 RB
WR Vernell Brown III 9 rec · 160 yds · 2 TD #112 WR
DL LJ McCray 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #207 DL
Kentucky Wildcats
DL Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #5 DL
DB Jordan Castell 16 tkl · 1 INT #22 DB
DL Tavion Gadson 5 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #33 DL
TE Willie Rodriguez 12 rec · 97 yds · 1 TD #16 TE

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Florida GatorsSEC +20.0 +9.7 +10.3 #38
Kentucky WildcatsSEC +14.3 +4.7 +9.5 #58

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Florida offense vs Kentucky defense+0.1 pts
Kentucky offense vs Florida defense-5.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 592 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.