← Matchups

Texas

SEC · 2-0 · power +30.0 · #7
Our numberLSU -0.7 no book has priced this game

LSU

SEC · 2-0 · power +27.0 · #10
Our side
MoneylineTEX to win ours 47%
Projected score 26–26 TEX – LSU
2026-11-14 · kickoff TBD Tiger Stadium (LA) · Baton Rouge, LA SEC game Early season

The books 1 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book TEX spreadLSU spread OverUnder TEX winLSU win TEX TT overTEX TT under LSU TT overLSU TT under
DraftKings

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Series Texas lead 8–7–1 · 16 meetings since 1902
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge LSU Tigers 101 ranks
Texas Longhorns #130 rush offense LSU Tigers #29 run defense
Pass game even 14 ranks apart
Texas Longhorns #104 pass offense LSU Tigers #90 pass defense
Run game edge Texas Longhorns 137 ranks
LSU Tigers #170 rush offense Texas Longhorns #33 run defense
Pass game edge Texas Longhorns 96 ranks
LSU Tigers #177 pass offense Texas Longhorns #81 pass defense
Texas Longhorns Balanced · 52% run Ball-control LSU Tigers Balanced · 45% run Ball-control
Steve Sarkisian · 48-20 Frank Wilson · 21-32 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Texas Longhorns
RB Hollywood Smothers 144 rush yds · 2 TD · 6 rec #17 RB
DB Graceson Littleton 9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #52 DB
WR Ryan Wingo 11 rec · 143 yds · 2 TD #64 WR
LB Justin Cryer 12 tkl · 1.0 TFL #88 LB
LSU Tigers
DL Jordan Ross 7 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #3 DL
DL Princewill Umanmielen 11 tkl · 4.5 sacks · 6.0 TFL #4 DL
TE Trey'Dez Green 10 rec · 162 yds · 1 TD #5 TE
RB Dilin Jones 179 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec #45 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Texas LonghornsSEC +30.0 +14.2 +15.8 #7
LSU TigersSEC +27.0 +12.8 +14.2 #10

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Texas offense vs LSU defense-0.1 pts
LSU offense vs Texas defense-3.1 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.