BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Hawai'i

MWC · 1-2 (0-1 MWC) · power +2.1 · #151
Our numberSTAN -3.7 no book has priced this game

Stanford

ACC · 1-1 (0-1 ACC) · power +4.0 · #132
Final HAW 27 · STAN 37 ML W Spread L Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineSTAN to win logged ours 58%

Our number: STAN by 3.3 — STAN to win.

Projected score 25–29 HAW – STAN
2026-08-29 · 7:00 PM Stanford Stadium · Stanford, CA Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book HAW spreadSTAN spread OverUnder HAW winSTAN win HAW TT overHAW TT under STAN TT overSTAN TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — —
BetMGM — —
ESPN Bet — —
Caesars — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread HAW 52% bets · 70% money total Under 59% bets · 60% money ML STAN 92% bets · 70% money
Series Stanford lead 4–1 · 5 meetings since 1946
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Stanford Cardinal 188 ranks
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #205 rush offense Stanford Cardinal #17 run defense
Pass game edge Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 115 ranks
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #97 pass offense Stanford Cardinal #212 pass defense
Run game edge Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 129 ranks
Stanford Cardinal #254 rush offense Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #125 run defense
Pass game even 34 ranks apart
Stanford Cardinal #179 pass offense Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #145 pass defense
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Balanced · 42% run Avg pace Stanford Cardinal Balanced · 53% run Ball-control
Timmy Chang · 22-29 Frank Reich · 4-8

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
DB Kona Moore 30 tkl · 2 PD #13 DB
RB DeVon Rice 167 rush yds · 3 TD · 10 rec #23 RB
LB Jamih Otis 26 tkl #53 LB
DB Matagi Thompson 15 tkl · 4 PD #122 DB
Stanford Cardinal
LB Matt Rose 21 tkl · 1.5 TFL #51 LB
TE Benji Blackburn 12 rec · 101 yds #27 TE
RB Micah Ford 126 rush yds · 3 TD · 2 rec #61 RB
DB Charlie Eckhardt 11 tkl · 1 INT #226 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsMWC +2.1 -0.9 +3.0 #151
Stanford CardinalACC +4.0 +1.4 +2.5 #132

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Hawai'i offense vs Stanford defense-3.4 pts
Stanford offense vs Hawai'i defense-1.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,399 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.