BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

NC State

ACC · 1-1 (0-1 ACC) · power +13.8 · #62
Our numberUVA -10.4 no book has priced this game

Virginia

ACC · 2-0 (1-0 ACC) · power +22.3 · #23
Final NCSU 8 · UVA 34 ML W Spread W Total L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineUVA to win logged ours 72%

Our number: UVA by 7.0 — UVA to win.

NCSU team totalNCSU over 23.5 ours 22.7
UVA team totalUVA over 27.5 ours 33.1
no pick

No NCSU team-total pick: the spread and total picks put NCSU over 23.8, which does not decide 23.5.

no pick

No UVA team-total pick: the spread and total picks put UVA over 30.8, which does not decide 27.5.

Projected score 23–33 NCSU – UVA
2026-08-29 · 3:30 PM Scott Stadium · Charlottesville, VA ACC game Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book NCSU spreadUVA spread OverUnder NCSU winUVA win NCSU TT overNCSU TT under UVA TT overUVA TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread NCSU 65% bets · 79% money total Under 53% bets · 56% money ML UVA 87% bets · 58% money
Series NC State lead 38–22 · 60 meetings since 1904
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 6 ranks apart
NC State Wolfpack #32 rush offense Virginia Cavaliers #38 run defense
Pass game even 21 ranks apart
NC State Wolfpack #56 pass offense Virginia Cavaliers #35 pass defense
Run game edge Virginia Cavaliers 80 ranks
Virginia Cavaliers #46 rush offense NC State Wolfpack #126 run defense
Pass game even 11 ranks apart
Virginia Cavaliers #128 pass offense NC State Wolfpack #139 pass defense
NC State Wolfpack Balanced · 51% run Ball-control Virginia Cavaliers Balanced · 53% run Avg pace
Dave Doeren · 84-56 · offense-minded Tony Elliott · 22-26 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
NC State Wolfpack
LB Popo Aguirre 21 tkl #147 LB
TE Preston Douglas 5 rec · 71 yds · 1 TD #52 TE
RB Jayden Scott 148 rush yds · 2 TD #149 RB
DB Ronnie Royal III 9 tkl · 1 PD #499 DB
Virginia Cavaliers
DL Fisher Camac 6 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL #140 DL
DB Jacobie Henderson 12 tkl · 3 PD #147 DB
DB Brandyn Hillman 6 tkl · 3 INT #152 DB
K Will Bettridge 3 FG · 11 XP · 20 pts #36 K

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
NC State WolfpackACC +13.8 +9.2 +4.6 #62
Virginia CavaliersACC +22.3 +8.6 +13.7 #23

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
NC State offense vs Virginia defense-4.5 pts
Virginia offense vs NC State defense+4.0 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.