BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Miami

ACC · 2-0 (1-0 ACC) · power +29.0 · #8
Our numberMIA -22.9 no book has priced this game

Stanford

ACC · 1-1 (0-1 ACC) · power +4.0 · #132
Final MIA 45 · STAN 6 ML W Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineMIA to win logged ours 10%

Our number: MIA by 15.8 — MIA to win.

MIA team totalMIA under 35.5 logged live now: MIA over 34.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 40.1

Our number: MIA 32.6, from our margin and total split into two scores.

STAN team totalSTAN over 10.5 logged ours 17.1

Our number: STAN 16.8, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 40–17 MIA – STAN
2026-09-04 · 9:00 PM Stanford Stadium · Stanford, CA ACC game Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book MIA spreadSTAN spread OverUnder MIA winSTAN win MIA TT overMIA TT under STAN TT overSTAN TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread MIA 65% bets · 72% money total Under 69% bets · 18% money · money Over ML MIA 95% bets · 63% money
Series Miami lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Stanford Cardinal 97 ranks
Miami Hurricanes #114 rush offense Stanford Cardinal #17 run defense
Pass game edge Miami Hurricanes 173 ranks
Miami Hurricanes #39 pass offense Stanford Cardinal #212 pass defense
Run game edge Miami Hurricanes 226 ranks
Stanford Cardinal #254 rush offense Miami Hurricanes #28 run defense
Pass game edge Miami Hurricanes 149 ranks
Stanford Cardinal #179 pass offense Miami Hurricanes #30 pass defense
Miami Hurricanes Balanced · 55% run Ball-control Stanford Cardinal Balanced · 53% run Ball-control
Mario Cristobal · 70-31 Frank Reich · 4-8

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Miami Hurricanes
QB Darian Mensah 653 pass yds · 8 TD · 0 INT #3 QB
WR Malachi Toney 16 rec · 330 yds · 4 TD #8 WR
DL Marquise Lightfoot 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #264 DL
DL Armondo Blount 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #308 DL
Stanford Cardinal
LB Matt Rose 21 tkl · 1.5 TFL #51 LB
TE Benji Blackburn 12 rec · 101 yds #27 TE
RB Micah Ford 126 rush yds · 3 TD · 2 rec #61 RB
DB Charlie Eckhardt 11 tkl · 1 INT #226 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Miami HurricanesACC +29.0 +16.2 +12.8 #8
Stanford CardinalACC +4.0 +1.4 +2.5 #132

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Miami offense vs Stanford defense+13.6 pts
Stanford offense vs Miami defense-11.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,565 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.