BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Miami (OH)

MAC · 1-1 · power +4.3 · #128
Our numberPITT -18.0 no book has priced this game

Pittsburgh

ACC · 2-0 · power +20.6 · #34
Final M-OH 14 · PITT 59 ML W Spread L Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylinePITT to win logged ours 84%

Our number: PITT by 14.0 — PITT to win.

Projected score 20–38 M-OH – PITT
2026-09-05 · 12:30 PM Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book M-OH spreadPITT spread OverUnder M-OH winPITT win M-OH TT overM-OH TT under PITT TT overPITT TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet
Caesars — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread M-OH 53% bets · 53% money total Under 66% bets · 64% money ML PITT 98% bets · 93% money
Series Pittsburgh lead 2–0 · 2 meetings since 1931
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Pittsburgh Panthers 144 ranks
Miami (OH) RedHawks #156 rush offense Pittsburgh Panthers #12 run defense
Pass game edge Pittsburgh Panthers 59 ranks
Miami (OH) RedHawks #160 pass offense Pittsburgh Panthers #101 pass defense
Run game edge Miami (OH) RedHawks 74 ranks
Pittsburgh Panthers #148 rush offense Miami (OH) RedHawks #74 run defense
Pass game even 4 ranks apart
Pittsburgh Panthers #70 pass offense Miami (OH) RedHawks #74 pass defense
Miami (OH) RedHawks Balanced · 54% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 49 rush ypg Pittsburgh Panthers Balanced · 47% run Ball-control
Chuck Martin · 70-64 · defense-minded Pat Narduzzi · 80-61

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Miami (OH) RedHawks
QB David McComb 474 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #62 QB
WR Damarion Witten 3 rec · 100 yds · 2 TD #203 WR
TE Christian Ross 4 rec · 52 yds · 1 TD #81 TE
WR Lynel Billups-Williams 8 rec · 104 yds · 1 TD #266 WR
Pittsburgh Panthers
QB Mason Heintschel 665 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #23 QB
DL Isaiah Neal 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #160 DL
WR Cataurus Hicks 8 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD #117 WR
RB Damon Ferguson Jr. 81 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec #94 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Miami (OH) RedHawksMAC +4.3 +3.3 +0.9 #128
Pittsburgh PanthersACC +20.6 +10.2 +10.4 #34

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Miami (OH) offense vs Pittsburgh defense-7.0 pts
Pittsburgh offense vs Miami (OH) defense+9.3 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.