← Matchups

Rutgers

B1G · 0-2 · power +1.6 · #154
Our side · spreadRUTG +3.5 logged our number at the pick RUTG -1.3 · now BC -4.3 · 1.3 pts from the market now

Boston College

ACC · 1-1 · power +4.0 · #131
Final RUTG 21 · BC 28 ML W Spread L Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
SpreadRUTG +3.5 logged live now: BC -3 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours BC -4.3

The line has not moved a point since it opened (BC -3.5 → -3.5), so our number decides: RUTG by 1.3 against BC -3.5 means RUTG covers.

TotalUnder 54.5 logged live now: Over 53.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 57.2

The total has not moved a point since it opened (54.5 → 54.5); ours 53.1 against 54.5 says under.

MoneylineBC to win logged ours 59% · book 57%

Our number: RUTG by 1.3 — BC to win.

Distance from the market 1.3 pts / +3.7 total a caution, not a signal
Projected score 26–31 RUTG – BC
2026-09-11 · 7:30 PM Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) · Chestnut Hill, MA Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book RUTG spreadBC spread OverUnder RUTG winBC win RUTG TT overRUTG TT under BC TT overBC TT under
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadBoston College -4.3
the marketBoston College -3.0
Total57.2
the market53.5
Boston College win59% vs 57%

Both percentages are Boston College’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured 2 days ago spread BC 56% bets · 35% money · money RUTG total Under 89% bets · 86% money ML BC 83% bets · 15% money · money RUTG
Series Boston College lead 20–7–1 · 28 meetings since 1919
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 15 ranks apart
Rutgers Scarlet Knights #141 rush offense Boston College Eagles #156 run defense
Pass game edge Rutgers Scarlet Knights 116 ranks
Rutgers Scarlet Knights #80 pass offense Boston College Eagles #196 pass defense
Run game edge Boston College Eagles 82 ranks
Boston College Eagles #175 rush offense Rutgers Scarlet Knights #257 run defense
Pass game edge Boston College Eagles 96 ranks
Boston College Eagles #140 pass offense Rutgers Scarlet Knights #236 pass defense
Rutgers Scarlet Knights Balanced · 50% run Avg pace Boston College Eagles Balanced · 45% run Avg pace
Greg Schiano · 31-41 · offense-minded Bill O'Brien · 9-16

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
WR KJ Duff 17 rec · 333 yds · 5 TD #1 WR
LB Moses Walker 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #129 LB
RB Antwan Raymond 176 rush yds · 4 rec #112 RB
DB Jesse Ofurie 11 tkl · 1 PD #538 DB
Boston College Eagles
LB Anthony Palano 22 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #3 LB
DB Marcus Upton 13 tkl · 2 PD #134 DB
DL E'Lla Boykin 8 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #211 DL
RB Evan Dickens 103 rush yds · 2 TD · 6 rec #85 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Rutgers Scarlet KnightsB1G +1.6 +3.2 -1.6 #154
Boston College EaglesACC +4.0 +0.7 +3.3 #131

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Rutgers offense vs Boston College defense-0.1 pts
Boston College offense vs Rutgers defense+2.3 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.