← Matchups

Georgia Southern

SBC · 1-1 · power +6.1 · #112
Our side · spreadGASO +20.5 logged our number at the pick CLEM -9.9 · now CLEM -11.2 · 8.3 pts from the market now

Clemson

ACC · 1-1 · power +15.6 · #53
Final GASO 7 · CLEM 22 ML W Spread W Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
SpreadGASO +20.5 logged live now: GASO +19.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours CLEM -11.2

The line has not moved a point since it opened (CLEM -21.25 → -20.5), so our number decides: CLEM by 9.9 against CLEM -20.5 means GASO covers.

TotalUnder 55.5 logged live now: Under 54.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 51.4

The market's move decides. The total opened 56.5 and is now 55.5, toward the under; that side has covered 55.1% at the opener since 2021. Ours at the pick: 53.6 — the same side.

MoneylineCLEM to win logged ours 73% · book 89%

Our number: CLEM by 9.9 — CLEM to win.

GASO team totalGASO over 17.5 logged live now: GASO over 16.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 20.1

Our number: GASO 21.9, from our margin and total split into two scores.

CLEM team totalCLEM under 38.5 logged live now: CLEM under 36.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 31.3

Our number: CLEM 31.8, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Distance from the market 8.3 pts / -3.1 total a caution, not a signal
Projected score 20–31 GASO – CLEM
2026-09-12 · 9:30 PM Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) · Clemson, SC Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book GASO spreadCLEM spread OverUnder GASO winCLEM win GASO TT overGASO TT under CLEM TT overCLEM TT under
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadClemson -11.2
the marketClemson -19.5
Total51.4
the market54.5
Clemson win73% vs 89%

Both percentages are Clemson’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread CLEM 69% bets · 63% money total Under 93% bets · 90% money ML CLEM 98% bets · 71% money
Series Clemson lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2018
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 34 ranks apart
Georgia Southern Eagles #101 rush offense Clemson Tigers #67 run defense
Pass game even 26 ranks apart
Georgia Southern Eagles #110 pass offense Clemson Tigers #84 pass defense
Run game edge Clemson Tigers 124 ranks
Clemson Tigers #131 rush offense Georgia Southern Eagles #255 run defense
Pass game edge Clemson Tigers 105 ranks
Clemson Tigers #101 pass offense Georgia Southern Eagles #206 pass defense
Georgia Southern Eagles Balanced · 51% run Avg pace Clemson Tigers Balanced · 45% run Avg pace
Clay Helton · 72-49 · offense-minded Dabo Swinney · 126-27

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Georgia Southern Eagles
WR Ashton Hollins 13 rec · 203 yds · 2 TD #26 WR
LB Rashon Myles Jr. 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #83 LB
DB Chance Gamble 8 tkl · 2 PD #179 DB
DL Elijah Fears 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #325 DL
Clemson Tigers
DL Will Heldt 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #42 DL
DB Elliot Washington II 10 tkl · 3 PD #153 DB
K Nolan Hauser 6 FG · 2 XP · 20 pts #23 K
DB Jerome Carter III 15 tkl · 1 PD #184 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Georgia Southern EaglesSBC +6.1 +1.4 +4.7 #112
Clemson TigersACC +15.6 +4.8 +10.7 #53

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Georgia Southern offense vs Clemson defense-9.3 pts
Clemson offense vs Georgia Southern defense+0.2 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.