Our side · spreadMD +3.5our number MD -4.2 · 7.7 pts from the marketour number starts from the opening line and is corrected +0.9 for this matchup by our data on both teams
Maryland
B1G · 2-0 · power +13.1 · #64
Our side
SpreadMD +3.5ours MD -4.2
TotalUnder 53.5ours 52.8
MoneylineMD to winours 57% · book 40%
Distance from the market7.7 pts / -0.7 totala caution, not a signal
Projected score24–28VT – MD
2026-09-19 · 7:30 PMSECU Stadium · College Park, MDEarly season
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
VT spread
MD spread
Over
Under
VT win
MD win
VT TT over
VT TT under
MD TT over
MD TT under
DraftKings
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FanDuel
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BetMGM
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ESPN Bet
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Caesars
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The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Ours vs the market
SpreadMaryland -4.2
the marketMaryland +3.5
Total52.8
the market53.5
Maryland win57%
vs 40%
Both percentages are Maryland’s chance to win — ours, then
the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.
What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%
How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the
market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and
the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse
we have done.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured 1 hr agototalOver 69% bets · 73% moneyMLVT 85% bets · 79% money
Series
Maryland lead
17–15
· 32 meetings since 1919
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameedge Virginia Tech Hokies61 ranks
Virginia Tech Hokies #59 rush offenseMaryland Terrapins #120 run defense
Pass gameedge Maryland Terrapins148 ranks
Virginia Tech Hokies #205 pass offenseMaryland Terrapins #57 pass defense
Run gameedge Virginia Tech Hokies64 ranks
Maryland Terrapins #242 rush offenseVirginia Tech Hokies #178 run defense
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Virginia Tech offense vs Maryland defense+5.1 pts
Maryland offense vs Virginia Tech defense+6.5 pts
Altitude · context only593 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.