← Matchups

Clemson

ACC · 1-1 · power +15.6 · #53
Our numberCLEM -11.1 no book has priced this game

California

ACC · 1-1 (1-0 ACC) · power +6.6 · #107
Our side
MoneylineCLEM to win ours 35%
Projected score 32–20 CLEM – CAL
2026-09-25 · 10:30 PM California Memorial Stadium · Berkeley, CA ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series California lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 1991
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Clemson Tigers 103 ranks
Clemson Tigers #131 rush offense California Golden Bears #234 run defense
Pass game edge California Golden Bears 58 ranks
Clemson Tigers #101 pass offense California Golden Bears #43 pass defense
Run game edge Clemson Tigers 181 ranks
California Golden Bears #248 rush offense Clemson Tigers #67 run defense
Pass game edge Clemson Tigers 66 ranks
California Golden Bears #150 pass offense Clemson Tigers #84 pass defense
Clemson Tigers Balanced · 45% run Avg pace California Golden Bears Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Dabo Swinney · 126-27 Nick Rolovich · 34-34

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Clemson Tigers
DL Will Heldt 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #42 DL
DB Elliot Washington II 10 tkl · 3 PD #153 DB
K Nolan Hauser 6 FG · 2 XP · 20 pts #23 K
DB Jerome Carter III 15 tkl · 1 PD #184 DB
California Golden Bears
DB Kingston Lopa 11 tkl · 4 INT #2 DB
DB Daniel Harris 10 tkl · 2 PD #56 DB
RB Adam Mohammed 194 rush yds · 1 TD · 12 rec #28 RB
TE Mason Mini 6 rec · 96 yds · 1 TD #28 TE

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Clemson TigersACC +15.6 +4.8 +10.7 #53
California Golden BearsACC +6.6 +3.4 +3.2 #107

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Clemson offense vs California defense+1.7 pts
California offense vs Clemson defense-7.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,190 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.