Our side
MoneylineFSU to win
ours 96%
Projected score
14–45
CARK – FSU
2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD
Doak Campbell Stadium · Tallahassee, FL
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
36 ranks apart
Central Arkansas Bears #143 rush offense
Florida State Seminoles #107 run defense
Pass game
edge Florida State Seminoles
116 ranks
Central Arkansas Bears #185 pass offense
Florida State Seminoles #69 pass defense
Run game
edge Florida State Seminoles
147 ranks
Florida State Seminoles #21 rush offense
Central Arkansas Bears #168 run defense
Pass game
edge Florida State Seminoles
206 ranks
Florida State Seminoles #32 pass offense
Central Arkansas Bears #238 pass defense
Central Arkansas Bears
Balanced · 54% run
Ball-control
Florida State Seminoles
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Mike Norvell · 76-50
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Central Arkansas Bears
DB
Bryson Adamoh
5 tkl · 3 PD · 3 INT
#6 DB
LB
Ashtyn Williams
28 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#70 LB
DL
Jakobe Shell
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#129 DL
DL
Trevion Traylor
14 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#138 DL
Florida State Seminoles
DB
Ashlynd Barker
15 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#32 DB
RB
Ousmane Kromah
231 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec
#31 RB
RB
Samuel Singleton Jr.
66 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec
#36 RB
LB
Chris Jones
15 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#77 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Central Arkansas offense vs Florida State defense-7.1 pts
Florida State offense vs Central Arkansas defense+13.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 572 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.