Our side
MoneylineDUKE to win
ours 98%
Projected score
11–47
W&M – DUKE
2026-09-26 · 3:30 PM
Wallace Wade Stadium · Durham, NC
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
William & Mary lead
5–1
· 6 meetings since 1922
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge William & Mary Tribe
51 ranks
William & Mary Tribe #104 rush offense
Duke Blue Devils #155 run defense
Pass game
edge William & Mary Tribe
123 ranks
William & Mary Tribe #102 pass offense
Duke Blue Devils #225 pass defense
Run game
edge Duke Blue Devils
100 ranks
Duke Blue Devils #138 rush offense
William & Mary Tribe #238 run defense
Pass game
edge Duke Blue Devils
159 ranks
Duke Blue Devils #54 pass offense
William & Mary Tribe #213 pass defense
William & Mary Tribe
Balanced · 56% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 56 rush ypg
Duke Blue Devils
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
Manny Diaz · 39-24 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
William & Mary Tribe
DL
Nathaniel McDonald
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#37 DL
K
Max Lipinski
8 FG · 5 XP · 29 pts
#13 K
DB
Trevon Cannon
17 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#130 DB
DB
David Roulley
14 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#157 DB
Duke Blue Devils
RB
Nate Sheppard
374 rush yds · 3 TD · 8 rec
#1 RB
DL
Bryce Davis
11 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#57 DL
WR
Jonah Burton
7 rec · 114 yds · 1 TD
#190 WR
TE
Jeremiah Hasley
5 rec · 89 yds
#67 TE
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
William & Mary offense vs Duke defense-11.0 pts
Duke offense vs William & Mary defense+15.6 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.