← Matchups

Boston College

ACC · 1-1 · power +4.0 · #131
Our numberSMU -29.8 no book has priced this game

SMU

ACC · 2-0 (1-0 ACC) · power +26.8 · #13
Our side
MoneylineSMU to win ours 93%
Projected score 12–41 BC – SMU
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD Gerald J. Ford Stadium · Dallas, TX ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series SMU lead 3–1 · 4 meetings since 1986
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge SMU Mustangs 165 ranks
Boston College Eagles #175 rush offense SMU Mustangs #10 run defense
Pass game edge SMU Mustangs 98 ranks
Boston College Eagles #140 pass offense SMU Mustangs #42 pass defense
Run game even 41 ranks apart
SMU Mustangs #115 rush offense Boston College Eagles #156 run defense
Pass game edge SMU Mustangs 150 ranks
SMU Mustangs #46 pass offense Boston College Eagles #196 pass defense
Boston College Eagles Balanced · 45% run Avg pace SMU Mustangs Balanced · 47% run Avg pace
Bill O'Brien · 9-16 Rhett Lashlee · 38-16

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Boston College Eagles
LB Anthony Palano 22 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #3 LB
DB Marcus Upton 13 tkl · 2 PD #134 DB
DL E'Lla Boykin 8 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #211 DL
RB Evan Dickens 103 rush yds · 2 TD · 6 rec #85 RB
SMU Mustangs
QB Kevin Jennings 767 pass yds · 8 TD · 2 INT #2 QB
DB Jimmy Wyrick 11 tkl · 1 PD #77 DB
TE Randy Pittman Jr. 6 rec · 77 yds · 2 TD #18 TE
WR Yannick Smith 6 rec · 151 yds · 2 TD #91 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Boston College EaglesACC +4.0 +0.7 +3.3 #131
SMU MustangsACC +26.8 +13.9 +12.9 #13

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Boston College offense vs SMU defense-12.2 pts
SMU offense vs Boston College defense+10.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,540 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.