← Matchups

California

ACC · 1-1 (1-0 ACC) · power +6.6 · #107

Our numberUNLV -3.5 ~~no book has priced this game~~

UNLV

MWC · 1-2 (1-0 MWC) · power +10.0 · #85

Our side

MoneylineUNLV to win ours 63%

Projected score 24–28 CAL – UNLV

2026-10-03 · 3:30 PM Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV Indoors Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series California and UNLV split 2 (1–1) · 2 meetings since 2022

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game even ~~15 ranks apart~~

California Golden Bears #248 rush offense UNLV Rebels #233 run defense

Pass game even ~~4 ranks apart~~

California Golden Bears #150 pass offense UNLV Rebels #146 pass defense

Run game edge UNLV Rebels ~~214 ranks~~

UNLV Rebels #20 rush offense California Golden Bears #234 run defense

Pass game even ~~7 ranks apart~~

UNLV Rebels #50 pass offense California Golden Bears #43 pass defense

California Golden Bears Balanced · 44% run Avg pace UNLV Rebels Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg

Nick Rolovich · 34-34 Dan Mullen · 67-34 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

California Golden Bears

DB Kingston Lopa 11 tkl · 4 INT #1 DB

DB Daniel Harris 10 tkl · 2 PD #56 DB

RB Adam Mohammed 194 rush yds · 1 TD · 12 rec #28 RB

TE Mason Mini 6 rec · 96 yds · 1 TD #28 TE

UNLV Rebels

DB Tre Fulton 21 tkl · 1 PD #28 DB

DB Jake Pope 23 tkl · 1 PD #62 DB

RB Jai'Den Thomas 224 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec #69 RB

DB Denver Harris 10 tkl · 2 PD #212 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
California Golden Bears~~ACC~~	+6.6	+3.4	+3.2	#107
UNLV Rebels~~MWC~~	+10.0	+1.9	+8.1	#85

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

California offense vs UNLV defense-4.7 pts

UNLV offense vs California defense-1.3 pts

Travel · context onlyAway team travels 409 mi

Altitude · context only541 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.