Our side
MoneylineUVA to win
ours 39%
Projected score
28–21
UVA – FSU
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD
Doak Campbell Stadium · Tallahassee, FL
ACC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Florida State lead
15–5
· 20 meetings since 1992
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Virginia Cavaliers
61 ranks
Virginia Cavaliers #46 rush offense
Florida State Seminoles #107 run defense
Pass game
edge Florida State Seminoles
59 ranks
Virginia Cavaliers #128 pass offense
Florida State Seminoles #69 pass defense
Run game
even
17 ranks apart
Florida State Seminoles #21 rush offense
Virginia Cavaliers #38 run defense
Pass game
even
3 ranks apart
Florida State Seminoles #32 pass offense
Virginia Cavaliers #35 pass defense
Virginia Cavaliers
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Florida State Seminoles
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Tony Elliott · 22-26 · defense-minded
Mike Norvell · 76-50
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Virginia Cavaliers
DL
Fisher Camac
6 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 0.5 TFL
#140 DL
DB
Jacobie Henderson
12 tkl · 3 PD
#147 DB
DB
Brandyn Hillman
6 tkl · 3 INT
#152 DB
K
Will Bettridge
3 FG · 11 XP · 20 pts
#36 K
Florida State Seminoles
DB
Ashlynd Barker
15 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#32 DB
RB
Ousmane Kromah
231 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec
#31 RB
RB
Samuel Singleton Jr.
66 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec
#36 RB
LB
Chris Jones
15 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#77 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Virginia offense vs Florida State defense-0.4 pts
Florida State offense vs Virginia defense-6.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 620 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.