← Matchups

Stanford

ACC · 1-1 (0-1 ACC) · power +4.0 · #132
Our numberND -34.4 no book has priced this game

Notre Dame

IND · 2-0 · power +35.6 · #1
Our side
MoneylineND to win ours 98%
Projected score 10–44 STAN – ND
2026-10-10 · 3:30 PM Notre Dame Stadium · Notre Dame, IN Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Notre Dame lead 25–14 · 39 meetings since 1924
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Notre Dame Fighting Irish 200 ranks
Stanford Cardinal #254 rush offense Notre Dame Fighting Irish #54 run defense
Pass game edge Notre Dame Fighting Irish 173 ranks
Stanford Cardinal #179 pass offense Notre Dame Fighting Irish #6 pass defense
Run game even 16 ranks apart
Notre Dame Fighting Irish #1 rush offense Stanford Cardinal #17 run defense
Pass game edge Notre Dame Fighting Irish 202 ranks
Notre Dame Fighting Irish #10 pass offense Stanford Cardinal #212 pass defense
Stanford Cardinal Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Notre Dame Fighting Irish Balanced · 58% run Ball-control
Frank Reich · 4-8 Marcus Freeman · 43-12

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Stanford Cardinal
LB Matt Rose 21 tkl · 1.5 TFL #51 LB
TE Benji Blackburn 12 rec · 101 yds #27 TE
RB Micah Ford 126 rush yds · 3 TD · 2 rec #61 RB
DB Charlie Eckhardt 11 tkl · 1 INT #226 DB
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
QB CJ Carr 492 pass yds · 6 TD · 0 INT #6 QB
K Spencer Porath 3 FG · 12 XP · 21 pts #11 K
RB Nolan James Jr. 48 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec #47 RB
WR Jordan Faison 8 rec · 135 yds · 2 TD #79 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Stanford CardinalACC +4.0 +1.4 +2.5 #132
Notre Dame Fighting IrishIND +35.6 +22.4 +13.2 #1

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Stanford offense vs Notre Dame defense-11.8 pts
Notre Dame offense vs Stanford defense+19.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,922 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.