← Matchups

Virginia Tech

ACC · 2-0 · power +11.6 · #77
Our numberVT -10.2 no book has priced this game

California

ACC · 1-1 (1-0 ACC) · power +6.6 · #107
Our side
MoneylineVT to win ours 42%
Projected score 32–22 VT – CAL
2026-10-10 · kickoff TBD California Memorial Stadium · Berkeley, CA ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series California and Virginia Tech split 2 (1–1) · 2 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Virginia Tech Hokies 175 ranks
Virginia Tech Hokies #59 rush offense California Golden Bears #234 run defense
Pass game edge California Golden Bears 162 ranks
Virginia Tech Hokies #205 pass offense California Golden Bears #43 pass defense
Run game edge Virginia Tech Hokies 70 ranks
California Golden Bears #248 rush offense Virginia Tech Hokies #178 run defense
Pass game edge California Golden Bears 96 ranks
California Golden Bears #150 pass offense Virginia Tech Hokies #246 pass defense
Virginia Tech Hokies Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 54 rush ypg California Golden Bears Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Philip Montgomery · 46-59 · offense-minded Nick Rolovich · 34-34

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Virginia Tech Hokies
TE Luke Reynolds 13 rec · 158 yds · 3 TD #2 TE
K John Love 4 FG · 15 XP · 27 pts #5 K
DL Mylachi Williams 7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 6.0 TFL #39 DL
DL Cortez Harris 7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #71 DL
California Golden Bears
DB Kingston Lopa 11 tkl · 4 INT #1 DB
DB Daniel Harris 10 tkl · 2 PD #56 DB
RB Adam Mohammed 194 rush yds · 1 TD · 12 rec #28 RB
TE Mason Mini 6 rec · 96 yds · 1 TD #28 TE

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Virginia Tech HokiesACC +11.6 +11.4 +0.2 #77
California Golden BearsACC +6.6 +3.4 +3.2 #107

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Virginia Tech offense vs California defense+8.3 pts
California offense vs Virginia Tech defense+3.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,273 mi
Altitude · context only502 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.