← Matchups

Wake Forest

ACC · 2-0 · power +16.4 · #50
Our numberWAKE -11.0 no book has priced this game

California

ACC · 1-1 (1-0 ACC) · power +6.6 · #107
Our side
MoneylineWAKE to win ours 31%
Projected score 33–22 WAKE – CAL
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD California Memorial Stadium · Berkeley, CA ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series California lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2024
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Wake Forest Demon Deacons 151 ranks
Wake Forest Demon Deacons #83 rush offense California Golden Bears #234 run defense
Pass game edge California Golden Bears 96 ranks
Wake Forest Demon Deacons #139 pass offense California Golden Bears #43 pass defense
Run game edge Wake Forest Demon Deacons 229 ranks
California Golden Bears #248 rush offense Wake Forest Demon Deacons #19 run defense
Pass game edge Wake Forest Demon Deacons 119 ranks
California Golden Bears #150 pass offense Wake Forest Demon Deacons #31 pass defense
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg California Golden Bears Balanced · 44% run Avg pace
Jake Dickert · 32-24 · defense-minded Nick Rolovich · 34-34

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
QB Gio Lopez 575 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #4 QB
K Connor Calvert 6 FG · 6 XP · 24 pts #10 K
WR Carlos Hernandez 11 rec · 253 yds · 1 TD #49 WR
LB Vincent Firenze 20 tkl · 2.0 TFL #49 LB
California Golden Bears
DB Kingston Lopa 11 tkl · 4 INT #1 DB
DB Daniel Harris 10 tkl · 2 PD #56 DB
RB Adam Mohammed 194 rush yds · 1 TD · 12 rec #28 RB
TE Mason Mini 6 rec · 96 yds · 1 TD #28 TE

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Wake Forest Demon DeaconsACC +16.4 +8.4 +8.0 #50
California Golden BearsACC +6.6 +3.4 +3.2 #107

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Wake Forest offense vs California defense+5.2 pts
California offense vs Wake Forest defense-4.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,301 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.