← Matchups

California

ACC · 1-1 (1-0 ACC) · power +6.6 · #107

Our numberSMU -23.6 ~~no book has priced this game~~

SMU

ACC · 2-0 (1-0 ACC) · power +26.8 · #13

Our side

MoneylineSMU to win ours 91%

Projected score 15–39 CAL – SMU

2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD Gerald J. Ford Stadium · Dallas, TX ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series SMU lead 2–1 · 3 meetings since 1957

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge SMU Mustangs ~~238 ranks~~

California Golden Bears #248 rush offense SMU Mustangs #10 run defense

Pass game edge SMU Mustangs ~~108 ranks~~

California Golden Bears #150 pass offense SMU Mustangs #42 pass defense

Run game edge SMU Mustangs ~~119 ranks~~

SMU Mustangs #115 rush offense California Golden Bears #234 run defense

Pass game even ~~3 ranks apart~~

SMU Mustangs #46 pass offense California Golden Bears #43 pass defense

California Golden Bears Balanced · 44% run Avg pace SMU Mustangs Balanced · 47% run Avg pace

Nick Rolovich · 34-34 Rhett Lashlee · 38-16

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

California Golden Bears

DB Kingston Lopa 11 tkl · 4 INT #1 DB

DB Daniel Harris 10 tkl · 2 PD #56 DB

RB Adam Mohammed 194 rush yds · 1 TD · 12 rec #28 RB

TE Mason Mini 6 rec · 96 yds · 1 TD #28 TE

SMU Mustangs

QB Kevin Jennings 767 pass yds · 8 TD · 2 INT #2 QB

DB Jimmy Wyrick 11 tkl · 1 PD #77 DB

TE Randy Pittman Jr. 6 rec · 77 yds · 2 TD #18 TE

WR Yannick Smith 6 rec · 151 yds · 2 TD #91 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
California Golden Bears~~ACC~~	+6.6	+3.4	+3.2	#107
SMU Mustangs~~ACC~~	+26.8	+13.9	+12.9	#13

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

California offense vs SMU defense-9.5 pts

SMU offense vs California defense+10.7 pts

Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,472 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.