← Matchups

Boston College

ACC · 1-1 · power +4.0 · #131
Our numberDUKE -16.7 no book has priced this game

Duke

ACC · 2-0 · power +21.6 · #29
Our side
MoneylineDUKE to win ours 88%
Projected score 18–34 BC – DUKE
2026-10-31 · kickoff TBD Wallace Wade Stadium · Durham, NC ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Boston College lead 5–4 · 9 meetings since 1927
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 20 ranks apart
Boston College Eagles #175 rush offense Duke Blue Devils #155 run defense
Pass game edge Boston College Eagles 85 ranks
Boston College Eagles #140 pass offense Duke Blue Devils #225 pass defense
Run game even 18 ranks apart
Duke Blue Devils #138 rush offense Boston College Eagles #156 run defense
Pass game edge Duke Blue Devils 142 ranks
Duke Blue Devils #54 pass offense Boston College Eagles #196 pass defense
Boston College Eagles Balanced · 45% run Avg pace Duke Blue Devils Balanced · 49% run Avg pace
Bill O'Brien · 9-16 Manny Diaz · 39-24 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Boston College Eagles
LB Anthony Palano 22 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #3 LB
DB Marcus Upton 13 tkl · 2 PD #134 DB
DL E'Lla Boykin 8 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #211 DL
RB Evan Dickens 103 rush yds · 2 TD · 6 rec #85 RB
Duke Blue Devils
RB Nate Sheppard 374 rush yds · 3 TD · 8 rec #1 RB
DL Bryce Davis 11 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #57 DL
WR Jonah Burton 7 rec · 114 yds · 1 TD #190 WR
TE Jeremiah Hasley 5 rec · 89 yds #67 TE

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Boston College EaglesACC +4.0 +0.7 +3.3 #131
Duke Blue DevilsACC +21.6 +11.2 +10.3 #29

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Boston College offense vs Duke defense-9.6 pts
Duke offense vs Boston College defense+7.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 604 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.