← Matchups

Clemson

ACC · 1-1 · power +15.6 · #53
Our numberCLEM -3.1 no book has priced this game

Florida State

ACC · 1-1 (0-1 ACC) · power +16.0 · #52
Our side
MoneylineFSU to win ours 56%
Projected score 26–23 CLEM – FSU
2026-10-31 · kickoff TBD Doak Campbell Stadium · Tallahassee, FL ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Florida State lead 21–17 · 38 meetings since 1970
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 24 ranks apart
Clemson Tigers #131 rush offense Florida State Seminoles #107 run defense
Pass game even 32 ranks apart
Clemson Tigers #101 pass offense Florida State Seminoles #69 pass defense
Run game edge Florida State Seminoles 46 ranks
Florida State Seminoles #21 rush offense Clemson Tigers #67 run defense
Pass game edge Florida State Seminoles 52 ranks
Florida State Seminoles #32 pass offense Clemson Tigers #84 pass defense
Clemson Tigers Balanced · 45% run Avg pace Florida State Seminoles Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Dabo Swinney · 126-27 Mike Norvell · 76-50

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Clemson Tigers
DL Will Heldt 7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #42 DL
DB Elliot Washington II 10 tkl · 3 PD #153 DB
K Nolan Hauser 6 FG · 2 XP · 20 pts #23 K
DB Jerome Carter III 15 tkl · 1 PD #184 DB
Florida State Seminoles
DB Ashlynd Barker 15 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #32 DB
RB Ousmane Kromah 231 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec #31 RB
RB Samuel Singleton Jr. 66 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec #36 RB
LB Chris Jones 15 tkl · 1.0 TFL #77 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Clemson TigersACC +15.6 +4.8 +10.7 #53
Florida State SeminolesACC +16.0 +7.0 +9.0 #52

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Clemson offense vs Florida State defense-4.1 pts
Florida State offense vs Clemson defense-3.7 pts
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.