Our side
MoneylineDUKE to win
ours 36%
Projected score
27–26
DUKE – NCSU
2026-11-07 · kickoff TBD
Carter-Finley Stadium · Raleigh, NC
ACC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Duke lead
44–37–5
· 86 meetings since 1924
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
12 ranks apart
Duke Blue Devils #138 rush offense
NC State Wolfpack #126 run defense
Pass game
edge Duke Blue Devils
85 ranks
Duke Blue Devils #54 pass offense
NC State Wolfpack #139 pass defense
Run game
edge NC State Wolfpack
123 ranks
NC State Wolfpack #32 rush offense
Duke Blue Devils #155 run defense
Pass game
edge NC State Wolfpack
169 ranks
NC State Wolfpack #56 pass offense
Duke Blue Devils #225 pass defense
Duke Blue Devils
Balanced · 49% run
Avg pace
NC State Wolfpack
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Manny Diaz · 39-24 · offense-minded
Dave Doeren · 84-56 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Duke Blue Devils
RB
Nate Sheppard
374 rush yds · 3 TD · 8 rec
#1 RB
DL
Bryce Davis
11 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#57 DL
WR
Jonah Burton
7 rec · 114 yds · 1 TD
#190 WR
TE
Jeremiah Hasley
5 rec · 89 yds
#67 TE
NC State Wolfpack
LB
Popo Aguirre
21 tkl
#147 LB
TE
Preston Douglas
5 rec · 71 yds · 1 TD
#52 TE
RB
Jayden Scott
148 rush yds · 2 TD
#149 RB
DB
Ronnie Royal III
9 tkl · 1 PD
#499 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Duke offense vs NC State defense+6.6 pts
NC State offense vs Duke defense-1.2 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.