Our side
MoneylineSMU to win
ours 85%
Projected score
20–33
VT – SMU
2026-11-06 · 7:00 PM
Gerald J. Ford Stadium · Dallas, TX
ACC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
SMU lead
2–1
· 3 meetings since 1972
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge SMU Mustangs
49 ranks
Virginia Tech Hokies #59 rush offense
SMU Mustangs #10 run defense
Pass game
edge SMU Mustangs
163 ranks
Virginia Tech Hokies #205 pass offense
SMU Mustangs #42 pass defense
Run game
edge SMU Mustangs
63 ranks
SMU Mustangs #115 rush offense
Virginia Tech Hokies #178 run defense
Pass game
edge SMU Mustangs
200 ranks
SMU Mustangs #46 pass offense
Virginia Tech Hokies #246 pass defense
Virginia Tech Hokies
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 54 rush ypg
SMU Mustangs
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
Philip Montgomery · 46-59 · offense-minded
Rhett Lashlee · 38-16
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Virginia Tech Hokies
TE
Luke Reynolds
13 rec · 158 yds · 3 TD
#2 TE
K
John Love
4 FG · 15 XP · 27 pts
#5 K
DL
Mylachi Williams
7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 6.0 TFL
#39 DL
DL
Cortez Harris
7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#71 DL
SMU Mustangs
QB
Kevin Jennings
767 pass yds · 8 TD · 2 INT
#2 QB
DB
Jimmy Wyrick
11 tkl · 1 PD
#77 DB
TE
Randy Pittman Jr.
6 rec · 77 yds · 2 TD
#18 TE
WR
Yannick Smith
6 rec · 151 yds · 2 TD
#91 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Virginia Tech offense vs SMU defense-1.5 pts
SMU offense vs Virginia Tech defense+13.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 973 mi
Altitude · context only457 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.