← Matchups

Merrimack

· 1-2 · power -14.3 · #337
Our numberWAKE -39.2 no book has priced this game

Wake Forest

ACC · 2-0 · power +16.4 · #50
Our side
MoneylineWAKE to win ours 99%
Projected score 6–45 MRMK – WAKE
2026-11-07 · kickoff TBD Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium · Winston-Salem, NC Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Wake Forest Demon Deacons 80 ranks
Merrimack Warriors #99 rush offense Wake Forest Demon Deacons #19 run defense
Pass game edge Wake Forest Demon Deacons 202 ranks
Merrimack Warriors #233 pass offense Wake Forest Demon Deacons #31 pass defense
Run game edge Wake Forest Demon Deacons 66 ranks
Wake Forest Demon Deacons #83 rush offense Merrimack Warriors #149 run defense
Pass game even 44 ranks apart
Wake Forest Demon Deacons #139 pass offense Merrimack Warriors #183 pass defense
Merrimack Warriors Run-heavy · 62% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 71 rush ypg Wake Forest Demon Deacons Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Jake Dickert · 32-24 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Merrimack Warriors
DB Danny Simms 22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #27 DB
DB Bertin Placide 7 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #218 DB
DL Dwayne Green Jr 9 tkl · 1.5 TFL #317 DL
DB Juice Ricks 4 tkl · 1 INT #303 DB
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
QB Gio Lopez 575 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #4 QB
K Connor Calvert 6 FG · 6 XP · 24 pts #10 K
WR Carlos Hernandez 11 rec · 253 yds · 1 TD #49 WR
LB Vincent Firenze 20 tkl · 2.0 TFL #49 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Merrimack Warriors -14.3 -12.6 -1.8 #337
Wake Forest Demon DeaconsACC +16.4 +8.4 +8.0 #50

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Merrimack offense vs Wake Forest defense-20.6 pts
Wake Forest offense vs Merrimack defense+10.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 665 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.