Our side
MoneylinePITT to win
ours 65%
Projected score
22–30
FSU – PITT
2026-11-13 · 7:00 PM
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
ACC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Pittsburgh lead
7–5
· 12 meetings since 1971
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
9 ranks apart
Florida State Seminoles #21 rush offense
Pittsburgh Panthers #12 run defense
Pass game
edge Florida State Seminoles
69 ranks
Florida State Seminoles #32 pass offense
Pittsburgh Panthers #101 pass defense
Run game
even
41 ranks apart
Pittsburgh Panthers #148 rush offense
Florida State Seminoles #107 run defense
Pass game
even
1 ranks apart
Pittsburgh Panthers #70 pass offense
Florida State Seminoles #69 pass defense
Florida State Seminoles
Run-heavy · 60% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Pittsburgh Panthers
Balanced · 47% run
Ball-control
Mike Norvell · 76-50
Pat Narduzzi · 80-61
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Florida State Seminoles
DB
Ashlynd Barker
15 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#32 DB
RB
Ousmane Kromah
231 rush yds · 2 TD · 2 rec
#31 RB
RB
Samuel Singleton Jr.
66 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec
#36 RB
LB
Chris Jones
15 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#77 LB
Pittsburgh Panthers
QB
Mason Heintschel
665 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT
#23 QB
DL
Isaiah Neal
4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#160 DL
WR
Cataurus Hicks
8 rec · 178 yds · 1 TD
#117 WR
RB
Damon Ferguson Jr.
81 rush yds · 1 TD · 6 rec
#94 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Florida State offense vs Pittsburgh defense-3.4 pts
Pittsburgh offense vs Florida State defense+1.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 732 mi
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.