← Matchups

Wake Forest

ACC · 2-0 · power +16.4 · #50
Our numberSMU -15.8 no book has priced this game

SMU

ACC · 2-0 (1-0 ACC) · power +26.8 · #13
Our side
MoneylineSMU to win ours 77%
Projected score 20–35 WAKE – SMU
2026-11-14 · kickoff TBD Gerald J. Ford Stadium · Dallas, TX ACC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series SMU lead 3–1 · 4 meetings since 1949
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge SMU Mustangs 73 ranks
Wake Forest Demon Deacons #83 rush offense SMU Mustangs #10 run defense
Pass game edge SMU Mustangs 97 ranks
Wake Forest Demon Deacons #139 pass offense SMU Mustangs #42 pass defense
Run game edge Wake Forest Demon Deacons 96 ranks
SMU Mustangs #115 rush offense Wake Forest Demon Deacons #19 run defense
Pass game even 15 ranks apart
SMU Mustangs #46 pass offense Wake Forest Demon Deacons #31 pass defense
Wake Forest Demon Deacons Balanced · 53% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg SMU Mustangs Balanced · 47% run Avg pace
Jake Dickert · 32-24 · defense-minded Rhett Lashlee · 38-16

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
QB Gio Lopez 575 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #4 QB
K Connor Calvert 6 FG · 6 XP · 24 pts #10 K
WR Carlos Hernandez 11 rec · 253 yds · 1 TD #49 WR
LB Vincent Firenze 20 tkl · 2.0 TFL #49 LB
SMU Mustangs
QB Kevin Jennings 767 pass yds · 8 TD · 2 INT #2 QB
DB Jimmy Wyrick 11 tkl · 1 PD #77 DB
TE Randy Pittman Jr. 6 rec · 77 yds · 2 TD #18 TE
WR Yannick Smith 6 rec · 151 yds · 2 TD #91 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Wake Forest Demon DeaconsACC +16.4 +8.4 +8.0 #50
SMU MustangsACC +26.8 +13.9 +12.9 #13

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Wake Forest offense vs SMU defense-4.6 pts
SMU offense vs Wake Forest defense+5.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 967 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.