BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

North Texas

AAC · 1-1 · power +20.8 · #32
Our numberIU -14.8 no book has priced this game

Indiana

B1G · 2-0 · power +33.9 · #3
Final UNT 16 · IU 52 ML W Spread W Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineIU to win logged ours 80%

Our number: IU by 18.9 — IU to win.

Projected score 25–40 UNT – IU
2026-09-05 · 12:00 PM Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Bloomington, IN Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book UNT spreadIU spread OverUnder UNT winIU win UNT TT overUNT TT under IU TT overIU TT under
DraftKings — — — — — —
FanDuel — —
BetMGM — — — — — —
ESPN Bet — —
Caesars — — — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread UNT 95% bets · 78% money total Under 80% bets · 31% money · money Over
Series Indiana and North Texas split 2 (1–1) · 2 meetings since 2011
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 9 ranks apart
North Texas Mean Green #11 rush offense Indiana Hoosiers #2 run defense
Pass game edge North Texas Mean Green 50 ranks
North Texas Mean Green #16 pass offense Indiana Hoosiers #66 pass defense
Run game edge Indiana Hoosiers 130 ranks
Indiana Hoosiers #45 rush offense North Texas Mean Green #175 run defense
Pass game edge Indiana Hoosiers 75 ranks
Indiana Hoosiers #8 pass offense North Texas Mean Green #83 pass defense
North Texas Mean Green Balanced · 50% run Avg pace Indiana Hoosiers Run-heavy · 58% run Ball-control
Eric Morris · 22-16 · offense-minded Curt Cignetti · 46-6

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
North Texas Mean Green
K Dominic De Freitas 6 FG · 6 XP · 24 pts #3 K
RB Jahiem White 185 rush yds · 2 TD · 9 rec #10 RB
DB CJ Coombes 16 tkl · 1 PD #149 DB
DL David Onuoha 9 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #169 DL
Indiana Hoosiers
LB Rolijah Hardy 12 tkl · 1.0 TFL #15 LB
WR Charlie Becker 7 rec · 145 yds · 5 TD #21 WR
RB Turbo Richard 166 rush yds · 3 TD · 2 rec #34 RB
DL Tobi Osunsanmi 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #181 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
North Texas Mean GreenAAC +20.8 +17.3 +3.6 #32
Indiana HoosiersB1G +33.9 +18.5 +15.4 #3

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
North Texas offense vs Indiana defense+1.8 pts
Indiana offense vs North Texas defense+14.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 722 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.