BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Northern Illinois

MAC · 0-2 · power -0.1 · #185
Our numberIOWA -26.5 no book has priced this game

Iowa

B1G · 2-0 · power +24.7 · #19
Final NIU 0 · IOWA 40 ML W Spread W Total L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineIOWA to win logged ours 93%

Our number: IOWA by 32.5 — IOWA to win.

NIU team totalNIU under 6.5 logged ours 9.9

Our number: NIU 6.2, from our margin and total split into two scores.

IOWA team totalIOWA over 37.5 logged ours 36.3

Our number: IOWA 38.8, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 10–36 NIU – IOWA
2026-09-05 · 4:15 PM Kinnick Stadium · Iowa City, IA Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book NIU spreadIOWA spread OverUnder NIU winIOWA win NIU TT overNIU TT under IOWA TT overIOWA TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — —
BetMGM
ESPN Bet — —
Caesars — — — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread NIU 97% bets · 74% money total Over 60% bets · 62% money ML IOWA 96% bets · 79% money
Series Iowa lead 9–1 · 10 meetings since 1985
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Iowa Hawkeyes 58 ranks
Northern Illinois Huskies #133 rush offense Iowa Hawkeyes #75 run defense
Pass game edge Iowa Hawkeyes 210 ranks
Northern Illinois Huskies #232 pass offense Iowa Hawkeyes #22 pass defense
Run game edge Iowa Hawkeyes 118 ranks
Iowa Hawkeyes #49 rush offense Northern Illinois Huskies #167 run defense
Pass game edge Northern Illinois Huskies 84 ranks
Iowa Hawkeyes #131 pass offense Northern Illinois Huskies #47 pass defense
Northern Illinois Huskies Run-heavy · 71% run Ball-control Iowa Hawkeyes Run-heavy · 68% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 41 rush ypg
Thomas Hammock · 35-47 Kirk Ferentz · 98-43 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Northern Illinois Huskies
LB Jashawn Nelson 19 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #47 LB
DB Avery Jones 11 tkl #136 DB
LB Jack Murray 18 tkl · 0.5 TFL #108 LB
DB Andruw Ellis 1 tkl · 1 INT #204 DB
Iowa Hawkeyes
RB Kamari Moulton 240 rush yds · 2 TD · 6 rec #19 RB
WR Tony Diaz 15 rec · 179 yds · 1 TD #39 WR
K Caden Buhr 5 FG · 5 XP · 20 pts #18 K
LB Cam Buffington 21 tkl · 1.0 TFL #113 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Northern Illinois HuskiesMAC -0.1 -4.2 +4.1 #185
Iowa HawkeyesB1G +24.7 +6.9 +17.7 #19

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Northern Illinois offense vs Iowa defense-21.9 pts
Iowa offense vs Northern Illinois defense+2.9 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.