BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

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Western Michigan

MAC · 1-1 · power +16.8 · #49
Our numberMICH -7.2 no book has priced this game

Michigan

B1G · 2-0 · power +22.1 · #24
Final WMU 12 · MICH 13 ML W Spread L Total L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineMICH to win logged ours 66%

Our number: MICH by 13.9 — MICH to win.

WMU team totalWMU over 10.5 logged ours 19.1

Our number: WMU 16.1, from our margin and total split into two scores.

MICH team totalMICH under 38.5 logged ours 26.3

Our number: MICH 30.0, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 19–26 WMU – MICH
2026-09-05 · 7:30 PM Michigan Stadium · Ann Arbor, MI Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book WMU spreadMICH spread OverUnder WMU winMICH win WMU TT overWMU TT under MICH TT overMICH TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread WMU 88% bets · 80% money total Over 68% bets · 52% money
Series Michigan lead 8–0 · 8 meetings since 1917
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 15 ranks apart
Western Michigan Broncos #105 rush offense Michigan Wolverines #90 run defense
Pass game edge Michigan Wolverines 138 ranks
Western Michigan Broncos #235 pass offense Michigan Wolverines #97 pass defense
Run game even 14 ranks apart
Michigan Wolverines #33 rush offense Western Michigan Broncos #47 run defense
Pass game edge Western Michigan Broncos 130 ranks
Michigan Wolverines #181 pass offense Western Michigan Broncos #51 pass defense
Western Michigan Broncos Run-heavy · 69% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 72 rush ypg Michigan Wolverines Balanced · 58% run Ball-control
Lance Taylor · 20-19 · defense-minded Sherrone Moore · 17-8

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Western Michigan Broncos
DL Austin Alexander 6 tkl #111 DL
K Dieter Kelly 4 FG · 7 XP · 19 pts #29 K
DB Joey Pope 9 tkl · 3 PD #232 DB
LB Domanick Moon 13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #166 LB
Michigan Wolverines
DL Dom Nichols 10 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #17 DL
DL John Henry Daley 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #45 DL
LB Troy Bowles 21 tkl · 2.0 TFL #74 LB
WR JJ Buchanan 8 rec · 174 yds · 1 TD #81 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Western Michigan BroncosMAC +16.8 +3.4 +13.4 #49
Michigan WolverinesB1G +22.1 +5.7 +16.4 #24

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Western Michigan offense vs Michigan defense-13.0 pts
Michigan offense vs Western Michigan defense-7.7 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.