FinalTOL 20 · MSU 30ML WSpread WTotal Wour logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineMSU to winloggedours 56%
Our number: MSU by 0.7 — MSU to win.
TOL team totalTOL over 17.5loggedours 25.6
Our number: TOL 25.7, from our margin and total split into two scores.
MSU team totalMSU under 28.5loggedours 28.4
Our number: MSU 26.4, from our margin and total split into two scores.
Projected score26–28TOL – MSU
2026-09-04 · 8:00 PMSpartan Stadium · East Lansing, MIEarly season
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
TOL spread
MSU spread
Over
Under
TOL win
MSU win
TOL TT over
TOL TT under
MSU TT over
MSU TT under
DraftKings
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FanDuel
BetMGM
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ESPN Bet
Caesars
The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured in-gamespreadMSU 60% bets · 54% moneytotalUnder 66% bets · 52% moneyMLMSU 95% bets · 75% money
Series
Michigan State lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 1925
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameedge Toledo Rockets104 ranks
Toledo Rockets #70 rush offenseMichigan State Spartans #174 run defense
Pass gameedge Toledo Rockets104 ranks
Toledo Rockets #66 pass offenseMichigan State Spartans #170 pass defense
Run gameedge Toledo Rockets138 ranks
Michigan State Spartans #161 rush offenseToledo Rockets #23 run defense
Pass gameedge Toledo Rockets132 ranks
Michigan State Spartans #136 pass offenseToledo Rockets #4 pass defense
Toledo RocketsBalanced · 55% runBall-controlMichigan State SpartansBalanced · 51% runAvg pace
Robert Weiner · 0-1Jonathan Smith · 43-50
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Toledo offense vs Michigan State defense-2.5 pts
Michigan State offense vs Toledo defense-1.6 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.