BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

South Dakota State

· 2-1 · power +5.6 · #114
Our numberNU -23.0 no book has priced this game

Northwestern

B1G · 1-0 · power +17.0 · #48
Final SDST 18 · NU 34 ML W Spread W Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineNU to win logged ours 90%

Our number: NU by 21.3 — NU to win.

Projected score 16–38 SDST – NU
2026-09-05 · 8:00 PM Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium · Evanston, IL Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book SDST spreadNU spread OverUnder SDST winNU win SDST TT overSDST TT under NU TT overNU TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — — — —
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet — — — —
Caesars — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread SDST 53% bets · 68% money total Over 82% bets · 86% money ML NU 98% bets · 66% money
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 106 ranks
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #107 rush offense Northwestern Wildcats #213 run defense
Pass game even 3 ranks apart
South Dakota State Jackrabbits #111 pass offense Northwestern Wildcats #108 pass defense
Run game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 49 ranks
Northwestern Wildcats #79 rush offense South Dakota State Jackrabbits #30 run defense
Pass game edge South Dakota State Jackrabbits 77 ranks
Northwestern Wildcats #170 pass offense South Dakota State Jackrabbits #93 pass defense
South Dakota State Jackrabbits Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Northwestern Wildcats Balanced · 56% run Ball-control
David Braun · 19-19

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
K Tristan Alvano 6 FG · 17 XP · 35 pts #4 K
P Max Pelham 10 punts · 47.9 yd avg #3 P
TE Greyton Gannon 5 rec · 81 yds · 2 TD #36 TE
WR Grahm Goering 13 rec · 254 yds #127 WR
Northwestern Wildcats
DB Braden Turner 7 tkl · 3 PD #97 DB
DB Robert Fitzgerald 14 tkl · 1 PD #113 DB
DB Damon Walters 9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #114 DB
DL Brendan Flakes 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #225 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
South Dakota State Jackrabbits +5.6 +5.7 -0.1 #114
Northwestern WildcatsB1G +17.0 +3.6 +13.3 #48

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
South Dakota State offense vs Northwestern defense-7.6 pts
Northwestern offense vs South Dakota State defense+3.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 484 mi
Altitude · context only315 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.