BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Ball State

MAC · 1-1 · power +1.3 · #156
Our numberOSU -35.2 no book has priced this game

Ohio State

B1G · 1-1 · power +34.9 · #2
Final BALL 3 · OSU 56 ML W Spread L Total L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineOSU to win logged ours 98%

Our number: OSU by 38.3 — OSU to win.

BALL team totalBALL over 2.5 logged ours 9.0

Our number: BALL 5.5, from our margin and total split into two scores.

OSU team totalOSU under 52.5 logged live now: OSU under 53.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 44.2

Our number: OSU 43.8, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 9–44 BALL – OSU
2026-09-05 · 12:30 PM Ohio Stadium · Columbus, OH Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book BALL spreadOSU spread OverUnder BALL winOSU win BALL TT overBALL TT under OSU TT overOSU TT under
DraftKings — — — — — —
FanDuel — —
BetMGM — — — — — —
ESPN Bet — — — — — —
Caesars — — — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread BALL 96% bets · 88% money total Under 77% bets · 64% money
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Ohio State Buckeyes 221 ranks
Ball State Cardinals #225 rush offense Ohio State Buckeyes #4 run defense
Pass game edge Ohio State Buckeyes 253 ranks
Ball State Cardinals #262 pass offense Ohio State Buckeyes #9 pass defense
Run game edge Ohio State Buckeyes 103 ranks
Ohio State Buckeyes #117 rush offense Ball State Cardinals #220 run defense
Pass game edge Ohio State Buckeyes 191 ranks
Ohio State Buckeyes #7 pass offense Ball State Cardinals #198 pass defense
Ball State Cardinals Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 50 rush ypg Ohio State Buckeyes Balanced · 52% run Ball-control
Mike Uremovich · 4-8 · defense-minded Ryan Day · 82-12

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Ball State Cardinals
DB Anthony Pinnace 6 tkl · 1 PD #261 DB
TE Tate Hoover 6 rec · 23 yds · 1 TD #70 TE
RB Jalen Bonds 86 rush yds · 1 TD · 2 rec #211 RB
DB Kamron Chamble 4 tkl · 2 INT #507 DB
Ohio State Buckeyes
WR Jeremiah Smith 16 rec · 315 yds · 3 TD #7 WR
QB Julian Sayin 598 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT #32 QB
RB Bo Jackson 157 rush yds · 1 TD · 5 rec #73 RB
DB Earl Little Jr. 15 tkl · 1 PD #175 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Ball State CardinalsMAC +1.3 +0.1 +1.2 #156
Ohio State BuckeyesB1G +34.9 +15.1 +19.7 #2

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Ball State offense vs Ohio State defense-19.6 pts
Ohio State offense vs Ball State defense+14.0 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.