BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Marshall

SBC · 1-1 · power +5.2 · #121
Our numberPSU -25.0 no book has priced this game

Penn State

B1G · 2-0 · power +28.5 · #9
Final MRSH 0 · PSU 45 ML W Spread L Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylinePSU to win logged ours 92%

Our number: PSU by 18.7 — PSU to win.

MRSH team totalMRSH over 14.5 logged ours 14.2

Our number: MRSH 16.1, from our margin and total split into two scores.

PSU team totalPSU under 37.5 logged ours 39.2

Our number: PSU 34.8, from our margin and total split into two scores.

Projected score 14–39 MRSH – PSU
2026-09-05 · 3:30 PM Beaver Stadium · University Park, PA Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book MRSH spreadPSU spread OverUnder MRSH winPSU win MRSH TT overMRSH TT under PSU TT overPSU TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread PSU 53% bets · 35% money · money MRSH total Under 86% bets · 85% money ML PSU 99% bets · 96% money
Series Penn State lead 2–0 · 2 meetings since 1929
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Penn State Nittany Lions 57 ranks
Marshall Thundering Herd #172 rush offense Penn State Nittany Lions #115 run defense
Pass game even 11 ranks apart
Marshall Thundering Herd #61 pass offense Penn State Nittany Lions #50 pass defense
Run game even 34 ranks apart
Penn State Nittany Lions #35 rush offense Marshall Thundering Herd #69 run defense
Pass game edge Penn State Nittany Lions 54 ranks
Penn State Nittany Lions #96 pass offense Marshall Thundering Herd #150 pass defense
Marshall Thundering Herd Run-heavy · 62% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 60 rush ypg Penn State Nittany Lions Run-heavy · 59% run Ball-control
Tony Gibson · 5-7 Terry Smith · 4-3

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Marshall Thundering Herd
DB Caleb Clark-Glover 20 tkl · 2 PD #50 DB
DL Kelvon McBride 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #91 DL
TE Toby Payne 9 rec · 61 yds #49 TE
DL Nate Blanc 2 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #323 DL
Penn State Nittany Lions
TE Benjamin Brahmer 6 rec · 87 yds · 3 TD #4 TE
LB Tony Rojas 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #48 LB
WR Koby Howard 9 rec · 229 yds · 1 TD #71 WR
QB Rocco Becht 539 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #30 QB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Marshall Thundering HerdSBC +5.2 +3.8 +1.3 #121
Penn State Nittany LionsB1G +28.5 +10.4 +18.1 #9

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Marshall offense vs Penn State defense-14.3 pts
Penn State offense vs Marshall defense+9.0 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.