The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
BGSU spread
NEB spread
Over
Under
BGSU win
NEB win
BGSU TT over
BGSU TT under
NEB TT over
NEB TT under
DraftKings
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FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars
The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Ours vs the market
SpreadNebraska -23.2
the marketNebraska -30.5
Total54.4
the market49.5
Nebraska win90%
vs 97%
Both percentages are Nebraska’s chance to win — ours, then
the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.
What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%
How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the
market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and
the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse
we have done.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured in-gamespreadBGSU 91% bets · 27% money · money NEBtotalOver 68% bets · 1% money · money UnderMLNEB 99% bets · 98% money
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameeven43 ranks apart
Bowling Green Falcons #188 rush offenseNebraska Cornhuskers #231 run defense
Pass gameedge Nebraska Cornhuskers113 ranks
Bowling Green Falcons #199 pass offenseNebraska Cornhuskers #86 pass defense
Run gameeven35 ranks apart
Nebraska Cornhuskers #93 rush offenseBowling Green Falcons #128 run defense
Pass gameedge Nebraska Cornhuskers45 ranks
Nebraska Cornhuskers #146 pass offenseBowling Green Falcons #191 pass defense
Bowling Green FalconsRun-heavy · 63% runBall-controlNebraska CornhuskersBalanced · 52% runBall-control
Eddie George · 4-8 · defense-mindedMatt Rhule · 58-46
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Bowling Green Falcons
DBKal-El Pascal
22 tkl · 1 PD#29 DB
LBDorian Pringle
23 tkl · 1.5 TFL#41 LB
TEJeremiah Scoby
12 rec · 121 yds#25 TE
DBJoJo Johnson
9 tkl · 1 INT#359 DB
Nebraska Cornhuskers
RBJamal Rule
210 rush yds · 3 TD · 2 rec#13 RB
WRJacory Barney Jr.
13 rec · 175 yds · 2 TD#35 WR
WRKwazi Gilmer
11 rec · 97 yds · 3 TD#60 WR
RBMekhi Nelson
112 rush yds · 1 TD · 4 rec#49 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Bowling Green offense vs Nebraska defense-12.4 pts
Nebraska offense vs Bowling Green defense+9.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 682 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.