Our side · spreadCONN +12.5loggedour number at the pick MD -3.3 · now MD -8.7 · 2.8 pts from the market now
UConn
IND · 1-1 · power +2.4 · #147
FinalMD 38 · CONN 14ML LSpread LTotal Wour logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
SpreadCONN +12.5loggedlive now: CONN +11.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours MD -8.7
The line has not moved a point since it opened (CONN +13 → +12.5), so our number decides: MD by 3.3 against CONN +12.5 means CONN covers.
TotalUnder 52.5loggedlive now: Over 52.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 58.4
The market's move decides. The total opened 53.5 and is now 52.5, toward the under; that side has covered 55.1% at the opener since 2021. Ours at the pick: 54.4 — the other side, overruled.
MoneylineCONN to winloggedlive now: MD to win — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 31% · book 21%
Our number: MD by 3.3 — CONN to win.
MD team totalMD under 32.5loggedlive now: MD under 31.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 33.5
Follows the spread and total picks: if MD by 3.3 and the game stays under 52.5, MD scores at most 27.9.
Distance from the market2.8 pts / +5.9 totala caution, not a signal
Projected score34–25MD – CONN
2026-09-12 · 3:30 PMPratt & Whitney Stadium · East Hartford, CTEarly season
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
MD spread
CONN spread
Over
Under
MD win
CONN win
MD TT over
MD TT under
CONN TT over
CONN TT under
DraftKings
—
—
—
—
FanDuel
—
—
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars
The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Ours vs the market
SpreadMaryland -8.7
the marketUConn +11.5
Total58.4
the market52.5
UConn win31%
vs 21%
Both percentages are UConn’s chance to win — ours, then
the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.
What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%
How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the
market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and
the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse
we have done.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured 36 hr agospreadCONN 84% bets · 61% moneytotalUnder 59% bets · 53% moneyMLMD 96% bets · 94% money
Series
Maryland lead
3–1
· 4 meetings since 1942
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameeven18 ranks apart
Maryland Terrapins #242 rush offenseUConn Huskies #224 run defense
Mike Locksley · 36-44 · defense-mindedJim Mora · 44-42 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Maryland offense vs UConn defense+7.5 pts
UConn offense vs Maryland defense-3.1 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.