← Matchups

North Dakota

· 3-0 · power +12.7 · #70
Our numberNEB -19.4 no book has priced this game

Nebraska

B1G · 2-0 · power +19.7 · #40
Our side
MoneylineNEB to win ours 86%
Projected score 23–42 UND – NEB
2026-09-19 · 7:15 PM Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE) · Lincoln, NE Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Nebraska lead 2–0 · 2 meetings since 1961
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks 111 ranks
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #120 rush offense Nebraska Cornhuskers #231 run defense
Pass game even 13 ranks apart
North Dakota Fighting Hawks #73 pass offense Nebraska Cornhuskers #86 pass defense
Run game edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks 67 ranks
Nebraska Cornhuskers #93 rush offense North Dakota Fighting Hawks #26 run defense
Pass game edge North Dakota Fighting Hawks 94 ranks
Nebraska Cornhuskers #146 pass offense North Dakota Fighting Hawks #52 pass defense
North Dakota Fighting Hawks Run-heavy · 60% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 43 rush ypg Nebraska Cornhuskers Balanced · 52% run Ball-control
Matt Rhule · 58-46

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
North Dakota Fighting Hawks
P Luke Silvernale 5 punts · 49.8 yd avg #2 P
WR Korey Tai 12 rec · 274 yds · 4 TD #30 WR
DB Jonnie Wiltshire 9 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #89 DB
DL Brody Thornton 8 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #114 DL
Nebraska Cornhuskers
RB Jamal Rule 210 rush yds · 3 TD · 2 rec #13 RB
WR Jacory Barney Jr. 13 rec · 175 yds · 2 TD #35 WR
WR Kwazi Gilmer 11 rec · 97 yds · 3 TD #60 WR
RB Mekhi Nelson 112 rush yds · 1 TD · 4 rec #49 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
North Dakota Fighting Hawks +12.7 +10.8 +1.9 #70
Nebraska CornhuskersB1G +19.7 +14.2 +5.5 #40

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
North Dakota offense vs Nebraska defense+5.3 pts
Nebraska offense vs North Dakota defense+12.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 490 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.