Our side · spreadMSU +30our number ND -24.0 · 6.0 pts from the marketour number starts from the opening line and is corrected +2.1 for this matchup by our data on both teams
Notre Dame
IND · 2-0 · power +35.6 · #1
Our side
SpreadMSU +30ours ND -24.0
TotalUnder 52.5ours 51.8
MoneylineND to winours 89% · book 96%
Distance from the market6.0 pts / -0.7 totala caution, not a signal
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
MSU spread
ND spread
Over
Under
MSU win
ND win
MSU TT over
MSU TT under
ND TT over
ND TT under
DraftKings
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FanDuel
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BetMGM
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ESPN Bet
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Caesars
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The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Ours vs the market
SpreadNotre Dame -24.0
the marketNotre Dame -30.0
Total51.8
the market52.5
Notre Dame win89%
vs 96%
Both percentages are Notre Dame’s chance to win — ours, then
the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.
What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025
0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%
How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the
market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and
the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse
we have done.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured 8 hr agospreadND 58% bets · 87% moneytotalOver 64% bets · 71% moneyMLND 97% bets · 24% money · money MSU
Series
Notre Dame lead
44–28–1
· 73 meetings since 1899
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameedge Notre Dame Fighting Irish107 ranks
Michigan State Spartans #161 rush offenseNotre Dame Fighting Irish #54 run defense
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
RBNolan James Jr.
48 rush yds · 2 TD · 5 rec#47 RB
WRJordan Faison
8 rec · 135 yds · 2 TD#79 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Michigan State offense vs Notre Dame defense-7.2 pts
Notre Dame offense vs Michigan State defense+13.1 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.