← Matchups

Ohio State

B1G · 1-1 · power +34.9 · #2
Our numberOSU -8.4 no book has priced this game

Iowa

B1G · 2-0 · power +24.7 · #19
Our side
MoneylineOSU to win ours 31%
Projected score 27–18 OSU – IOWA
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD Kinnick Stadium · Iowa City, IA B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Ohio State lead 49–15–3 · 67 meetings since 1922
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 42 ranks apart
Ohio State Buckeyes #117 rush offense Iowa Hawkeyes #75 run defense
Pass game even 15 ranks apart
Ohio State Buckeyes #7 pass offense Iowa Hawkeyes #22 pass defense
Run game edge Ohio State Buckeyes 45 ranks
Iowa Hawkeyes #49 rush offense Ohio State Buckeyes #4 run defense
Pass game edge Ohio State Buckeyes 122 ranks
Iowa Hawkeyes #131 pass offense Ohio State Buckeyes #9 pass defense
Ohio State Buckeyes Balanced · 52% run Ball-control Iowa Hawkeyes Run-heavy · 68% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 41 rush ypg
Ryan Day · 82-12 Kirk Ferentz · 98-43 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Ohio State Buckeyes
WR Jeremiah Smith 16 rec · 315 yds · 3 TD #7 WR
QB Julian Sayin 598 pass yds · 4 TD · 1 INT #32 QB
RB Bo Jackson 157 rush yds · 1 TD · 5 rec #73 RB
DB Earl Little Jr. 15 tkl · 1 PD #175 DB
Iowa Hawkeyes
RB Kamari Moulton 240 rush yds · 2 TD · 6 rec #19 RB
WR Tony Diaz 15 rec · 179 yds · 1 TD #39 WR
K Caden Buhr 5 FG · 5 XP · 20 pts #18 K
LB Cam Buffington 21 tkl · 1.0 TFL #113 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Ohio State BuckeyesB1G +34.9 +15.1 +19.7 #2
Iowa HawkeyesB1G +24.7 +6.9 +17.7 #19

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Ohio State offense vs Iowa defense-2.6 pts
Iowa offense vs Ohio State defense-12.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 460 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.