Our side
MoneylineMICH to win
ours 21%
Projected score
30–15
MICH – MINN
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD
Huntington Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
B1G game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Michigan lead
78–25–3
· 106 meetings since 1892
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Michigan Wolverines
84 ranks
Michigan Wolverines #33 rush offense
Minnesota Golden Gophers #117 run defense
Pass game
edge Minnesota Golden Gophers
101 ranks
Michigan Wolverines #181 pass offense
Minnesota Golden Gophers #80 pass defense
Run game
edge Michigan Wolverines
134 ranks
Minnesota Golden Gophers #224 rush offense
Michigan Wolverines #90 run defense
Pass game
even
32 ranks apart
Minnesota Golden Gophers #129 pass offense
Michigan Wolverines #97 pass defense
Michigan Wolverines
Balanced · 58% run
Ball-control
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Balanced · 44% run
Ball-control
Sherrone Moore · 17-8
P.J. Fleck · 87-50
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Michigan Wolverines
DL
Dom Nichols
10 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#17 DL
DL
John Henry Daley
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#45 DL
LB
Troy Bowles
21 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#74 LB
WR
JJ Buchanan
8 rec · 174 yds · 1 TD
#81 WR
Minnesota Golden Gophers
DL
TJ Bush Jr.
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#92 DL
RB
Darius Taylor
71 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#139 RB
LB
Maverick Baranowski
15 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#208 LB
QB
Drake Lindsey
543 pass yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
#77 QB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Michigan offense vs Minnesota defense+0.1 pts
Minnesota offense vs Michigan defense-15.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 509 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.