← Matchups

Michigan

B1G · 2-0 · power +22.1 · #24
Our numberMICH -15.0 no book has priced this game

Minnesota

B1G · 1-1 · power +6.8 · #104
Our side
MoneylineMICH to win ours 21%
Projected score 30–15 MICH – MINN
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD Huntington Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Michigan lead 78–25–3 · 106 meetings since 1892
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Michigan Wolverines 84 ranks
Michigan Wolverines #33 rush offense Minnesota Golden Gophers #117 run defense
Pass game edge Minnesota Golden Gophers 101 ranks
Michigan Wolverines #181 pass offense Minnesota Golden Gophers #80 pass defense
Run game edge Michigan Wolverines 134 ranks
Minnesota Golden Gophers #224 rush offense Michigan Wolverines #90 run defense
Pass game even 32 ranks apart
Minnesota Golden Gophers #129 pass offense Michigan Wolverines #97 pass defense
Michigan Wolverines Balanced · 58% run Ball-control Minnesota Golden Gophers Balanced · 44% run Ball-control
Sherrone Moore · 17-8 P.J. Fleck · 87-50

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Michigan Wolverines
DL Dom Nichols 10 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #17 DL
DL John Henry Daley 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #45 DL
LB Troy Bowles 21 tkl · 2.0 TFL #74 LB
WR JJ Buchanan 8 rec · 174 yds · 1 TD #81 WR
Minnesota Golden Gophers
DL TJ Bush Jr. 11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #92 DL
RB Darius Taylor 71 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec #139 RB
LB Maverick Baranowski 15 tkl · 1.0 TFL #208 LB
QB Drake Lindsey 543 pass yds · 1 TD · 0 INT #77 QB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Michigan WolverinesB1G +22.1 +5.7 +16.4 #24
Minnesota Golden GophersB1G +6.8 +1.1 +5.6 #104

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Michigan offense vs Minnesota defense+0.1 pts
Minnesota offense vs Michigan defense-15.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 509 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.