← Matchups

Michigan State

B1G · 2-0 · power +15.3 · #54
Our numberWIS -0.5 no book has priced this game

Wisconsin

B1G · 1-1 · power +12.0 · #74
Our side
MoneylineMSU to win ours 47%
Projected score 23–24 MSU – WIS
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD Camp Randall Stadium · Madison, WI B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Michigan State lead 32–23 · 55 meetings since 1913
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Wisconsin Badgers 78 ranks
Michigan State Spartans #161 rush offense Wisconsin Badgers #83 run defense
Pass game even 28 ranks apart
Michigan State Spartans #136 pass offense Wisconsin Badgers #164 pass defense
Run game even 33 ranks apart
Wisconsin Badgers #207 rush offense Michigan State Spartans #174 run defense
Pass game edge Michigan State Spartans 84 ranks
Wisconsin Badgers #254 pass offense Michigan State Spartans #170 pass defense
Michigan State Spartans Balanced · 51% run Avg pace Wisconsin Badgers Run-heavy · 59% run Ball-control
Jonathan Smith · 43-50 Luke Fickell · 74-39 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Michigan State Spartans
DL Eli Coenen 7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #21 DL
RB Cam Edwards 250 rush yds · 3 TD · 3 rec #18 RB
DL Kenny Soares Jr. 6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #69 DL
K Liam Boyd 5 FG · 6 XP · 21 pts #17 K
Wisconsin Badgers
LB Cooper Catalano 22 tkl #65 LB
DB Matthew Jung 16 tkl · 1 PD #120 DB
LB Mason Posa 16 tkl #201 LB
WR Malachi Coleman 4 rec · 76 yds · 1 TD #216 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Michigan State SpartansB1G +15.3 +6.0 +9.3 #54
Wisconsin BadgersB1G +12.0 -1.3 +13.3 #74

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Michigan State offense vs Wisconsin defense-7.3 pts
Wisconsin offense vs Michigan State defense-10.6 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.