← Matchups

Ball State

MAC · 1-1 · power +1.3 · #156
Our numberNU -22.2 no book has priced this game

Northwestern

B1G · 1-0 · power +17.0 · #48
Our side
MoneylineNU to win ours 86%
Projected score 14–36 BALL – NU
2026-10-10 · kickoff TBD Ryan Field · Evanston, IL Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Northwestern lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2015
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 12 ranks apart
Ball State Cardinals #225 rush offense Northwestern Wildcats #213 run defense
Pass game edge Northwestern Wildcats 154 ranks
Ball State Cardinals #262 pass offense Northwestern Wildcats #108 pass defense
Run game edge Northwestern Wildcats 141 ranks
Northwestern Wildcats #79 rush offense Ball State Cardinals #220 run defense
Pass game even 28 ranks apart
Northwestern Wildcats #170 pass offense Ball State Cardinals #198 pass defense
Ball State Cardinals Run-heavy · 62% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 50 rush ypg Northwestern Wildcats Balanced · 56% run Ball-control
Mike Uremovich · 4-8 · defense-minded David Braun · 19-19

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Ball State Cardinals
DB Anthony Pinnace 6 tkl · 1 PD #261 DB
TE Tate Hoover 6 rec · 23 yds · 1 TD #70 TE
RB Jalen Bonds 86 rush yds · 1 TD · 2 rec #211 RB
DB Kamron Chamble 4 tkl · 2 INT #507 DB
Northwestern Wildcats
DB Braden Turner 7 tkl · 3 PD #97 DB
DB Robert Fitzgerald 14 tkl · 1 PD #113 DB
DB Damon Walters 9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #114 DB
DL Brendan Flakes 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #225 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Ball State CardinalsMAC +1.3 +0.1 +1.2 #156
Northwestern WildcatsB1G +17.0 +3.6 +13.3 #48

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Ball State offense vs Northwestern defense-13.2 pts
Northwestern offense vs Ball State defense+2.5 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.