Our side
MoneylineMSU to win
ours 51%
Projected score
23–24
NU – MSU
2026-10-17 · kickoff TBD
Spartan Stadium · East Lansing, MI
B1G game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Michigan State lead
41–19
· 60 meetings since 1905
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Northwestern Wildcats
95 ranks
Northwestern Wildcats #79 rush offense
Michigan State Spartans #174 run defense
Pass game
even
0 ranks apart
Northwestern Wildcats #170 pass offense
Michigan State Spartans #170 pass defense
Run game
edge Michigan State Spartans
52 ranks
Michigan State Spartans #161 rush offense
Northwestern Wildcats #213 run defense
Pass game
even
28 ranks apart
Michigan State Spartans #136 pass offense
Northwestern Wildcats #108 pass defense
Northwestern Wildcats
Balanced · 56% run
Ball-control
Michigan State Spartans
Balanced · 51% run
Avg pace
David Braun · 19-19
Jonathan Smith · 43-50
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Northwestern Wildcats
DB
Braden Turner
7 tkl · 3 PD
#97 DB
DB
Robert Fitzgerald
14 tkl · 1 PD
#113 DB
DB
Damon Walters
9 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#114 DB
DL
Brendan Flakes
4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#225 DL
Michigan State Spartans
DL
Eli Coenen
7 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#21 DL
RB
Cam Edwards
250 rush yds · 3 TD · 3 rec
#18 RB
DL
Kenny Soares Jr.
6 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#69 DL
K
Liam Boyd
5 FG · 6 XP · 21 pts
#17 K
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Northwestern offense vs Michigan State defense-5.7 pts
Michigan State offense vs Northwestern defense-7.3 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.