← Matchups

USC

B1G · 3-0 · power +26.1 · #14
Our numberUSC -13.9 no book has priced this game

Wisconsin

B1G · 1-1 · power +12.0 · #74
Our side
MoneylineUSC to win ours 23%
Projected score 32–18 USC – WIS
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD Camp Randall Stadium · Madison, WI B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series USC lead 7–1 · 8 meetings since 1952
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 33 ranks apart
USC Trojans #50 rush offense Wisconsin Badgers #83 run defense
Pass game edge USC Trojans 155 ranks
USC Trojans #9 pass offense Wisconsin Badgers #164 pass defense
Run game edge USC Trojans 50 ranks
Wisconsin Badgers #207 rush offense USC Trojans #157 run defense
Pass game edge USC Trojans 169 ranks
Wisconsin Badgers #254 pass offense USC Trojans #85 pass defense
USC Trojans Balanced · 52% run Ball-control Wisconsin Badgers Run-heavy · 59% run Ball-control
Lincoln Riley · 90-28 · offense-minded Luke Fickell · 74-39 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
USC Trojans
WR Trent Mosley 13 rec · 255 yds · 4 TD #13 WR
QB Jayden Maiava 896 pass yds · 10 TD · 1 INT #7 QB
TE Mark Bowman 12 rec · 128 yds · 2 TD #10 TE
P Lachlan Carrigan 3 punts · 46.7 yd avg #8 P
Wisconsin Badgers
LB Cooper Catalano 22 tkl #65 LB
DB Matthew Jung 16 tkl · 1 PD #120 DB
LB Mason Posa 16 tkl #201 LB
WR Malachi Coleman 4 rec · 76 yds · 1 TD #216 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
USC TrojansB1G +26.1 +16.9 +9.2 #14
Wisconsin BadgersB1G +12.0 -1.3 +13.3 #74

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
USC offense vs Wisconsin defense+3.6 pts
Wisconsin offense vs USC defense-10.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,671 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.