← Matchups

Nevada

MWC · 1-1 · power +5.6 · #116

Our numberUCLA -19.3 ~~no book has priced this game~~

UCLA

B1G · 2-0 · power +19.9 · #39

Our side

MoneylineUCLA to win ours 84%

Projected score 15–34 NEV – UCLA

2026-10-31 · kickoff TBD Rose Bowl · Pasadena, CA Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series UCLA lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2013

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge Nevada Wolf Pack ~~72 ranks~~

Nevada Wolf Pack #179 rush offense UCLA Bruins #251 run defense

Pass game even ~~39 ranks apart~~

Nevada Wolf Pack #263 pass offense UCLA Bruins #224 pass defense

Run game edge UCLA Bruins ~~179 ranks~~

UCLA Bruins #71 rush offense Nevada Wolf Pack #250 run defense

Pass game edge Nevada Wolf Pack ~~130 ranks~~

UCLA Bruins #245 pass offense Nevada Wolf Pack #115 pass defense

Nevada Wolf Pack Run-heavy · 64% run Ball-control UCLA Bruins Balanced · 50% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg

Jeff Choate · 6-19 Tim Skipper · 9-13

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Nevada Wolf Pack

DL Dylan LaBarbera 15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #16 DL

LB EJ Smith 24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #13 LB

RB Dominic Kelley 236 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #53 RB

LB Jeremy Naborne-Owens 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #150 LB

UCLA Bruins

RB Wayne Knight 168 rush yds · 6 TD · 2 rec #7 RB

DB Ta'Shawn James 13 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #16 DB

LB Sammy Omosigho 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #26 LB

LB Jalen Woods 20 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #31 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Nevada Wolf Pack~~MWC~~	+5.6	-3.4	+8.9	#116
UCLA Bruins~~B1G~~	+19.9	+9.4	+10.5	#39

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Nevada offense vs UCLA defense-13.8 pts

UCLA offense vs Nevada defense+0.4 pts

Altitude · context only1,160 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.