Our side
MoneylinePSU to win
ours 93%
Projected score
12–33
MINN – PSU
2026-11-14 · kickoff TBD
Beaver Stadium · University Park, PA
B1G game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Penn State lead
11–6
· 17 meetings since 1993
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Penn State Nittany Lions
109 ranks
Minnesota Golden Gophers #224 rush offense
Penn State Nittany Lions #115 run defense
Pass game
edge Penn State Nittany Lions
79 ranks
Minnesota Golden Gophers #129 pass offense
Penn State Nittany Lions #50 pass defense
Run game
edge Penn State Nittany Lions
82 ranks
Penn State Nittany Lions #35 rush offense
Minnesota Golden Gophers #117 run defense
Pass game
even
16 ranks apart
Penn State Nittany Lions #96 pass offense
Minnesota Golden Gophers #80 pass defense
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Balanced · 44% run
Ball-control
Penn State Nittany Lions
Run-heavy · 59% run
Ball-control
P.J. Fleck · 87-50
Terry Smith · 4-3
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Minnesota Golden Gophers
DL
TJ Bush Jr.
11 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#92 DL
RB
Darius Taylor
71 rush yds · 3 TD · 4 rec
#139 RB
LB
Maverick Baranowski
15 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#208 LB
QB
Drake Lindsey
543 pass yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
#77 QB
Penn State Nittany Lions
TE
Benjamin Brahmer
6 rec · 87 yds · 3 TD
#4 TE
LB
Tony Rojas
14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#48 LB
WR
Koby Howard
9 rec · 229 yds · 1 TD
#71 WR
QB
Rocco Becht
539 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT
#30 QB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Minnesota offense vs Penn State defense-17.0 pts
Penn State offense vs Minnesota defense+4.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 828 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.