← Matchups

Rutgers

B1G · 0-2 · power +1.6 · #154
Our numberPSU -27.7 no book has priced this game

Penn State

B1G · 2-0 · power +28.5 · #9
Our side
MoneylinePSU to win ours 96%
Projected score 11–39 RUTG – PSU
2026-11-21 · kickoff TBD Beaver Stadium · University Park, PA B1G game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Penn State lead 33–2 · 35 meetings since 1918
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 26 ranks apart
Rutgers Scarlet Knights #141 rush offense Penn State Nittany Lions #115 run defense
Pass game even 30 ranks apart
Rutgers Scarlet Knights #80 pass offense Penn State Nittany Lions #50 pass defense
Run game edge Penn State Nittany Lions 222 ranks
Penn State Nittany Lions #35 rush offense Rutgers Scarlet Knights #257 run defense
Pass game edge Penn State Nittany Lions 140 ranks
Penn State Nittany Lions #96 pass offense Rutgers Scarlet Knights #236 pass defense
Rutgers Scarlet Knights Balanced · 50% run Avg pace Penn State Nittany Lions Run-heavy · 59% run Ball-control
Greg Schiano · 31-41 · offense-minded Terry Smith · 4-3

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
WR KJ Duff 17 rec · 333 yds · 5 TD #1 WR
LB Moses Walker 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #129 LB
RB Antwan Raymond 176 rush yds · 4 rec #112 RB
DB Jesse Ofurie 11 tkl · 1 PD #538 DB
Penn State Nittany Lions
TE Benjamin Brahmer 6 rec · 87 yds · 3 TD #4 TE
LB Tony Rojas 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #48 LB
WR Koby Howard 9 rec · 229 yds · 1 TD #71 WR
QB Rocco Becht 539 pass yds · 7 TD · 0 INT #30 QB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Rutgers Scarlet KnightsB1G +1.6 +3.2 -1.6 #154
Penn State Nittany LionsB1G +28.5 +10.4 +18.1 #9

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Rutgers offense vs Penn State defense-14.9 pts
Penn State offense vs Rutgers defense+12.0 pts
Altitude · context only346 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.